Ava Gustafson

Rating History

Singlehanded & Keelboat Ratings

DisciplineRating Rank RacesLast raced
Singlehanded2.12133 of 25147Fall 2025
Keelboat1.20unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active)7Fall 2023

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
2.09 (fleet 2.91) 195 of 328 −0.01 ± 0.16
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 41–61 (40%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Spring 2026625–33—
Spring 2025416–28—
1.922.12.22.3Spring 2025Spring 2026St. Mary's College of MD Team Race (2025-03-08): rating 1.98, fleet rating alone 2.00, offset -0.01; record 0-10 in this boatGeorgetown Women's Team Race (2025-03-22): rating 2.03, fleet rating alone 2.05, offset -0.02; record 3-1 in this boatGeorgetown Women's Team Race (2025-03-22): rating 2.03, fleet rating alone 2.05, offset -0.02; record 3-1 in this boatGeorgetown Women's Team Race (2025-03-22): rating 2.03, fleet rating alone 2.05, offset -0.02; record 5-1 in this boatDellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy (2025-03-29): rating 2.06, fleet rating alone 2.04, offset +0.01; record 5-9 in this boat2026 Jen Harris Team Race (2026-03-07): rating 2.19, fleet rating alone 2.18, offset +0.01; record 2-1 in this boatGraham Hall Team Race (2026-03-14): rating 2.14, fleet rating alone 2.16, offset -0.01; record 1-4 in this boatGraham Hall Team Race (2026-03-14): rating 2.14, fleet rating alone 2.16, offset -0.01; record 3-10 in this boatBlaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race (2026-03-21): rating 2.11, fleet rating alone 2.16, offset -0.05; record 5-5 in this boatDellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy (2026-03-28): rating 2.09, fleet rating alone 2.12, offset -0.03; record 2-3 in this boatDellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy (2026-03-28): rating 2.09, fleet rating alone 2.12, offset -0.03; record 2-9 in this boatMAISA Women’s Team Race Championship (2026-04-11): rating 2.11, fleet rating alone 2.13, offset -0.02; record 9-0 in this boatICSA Women's Team Race National Championship (2026-04-26): rating 2.12, fleet rating alone 2.13, offset -0.01; record 1-1 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 9 graded regattas (100 matches) the record is 40–60 against 38.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2026-04-11MAISA Women’s Team Race Championshipskipper2.755.759–08.0≥+3.001.436%
2026-03-28Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophyskipper2.522.914–123.0+0.390.335%
2026-03-21Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Raceskipper2.423.105–53.7+0.690.726%
2026-03-14Graham Hall Team Raceskipper2.511.514–146.2−1.001.596%
2026-03-072026 Jen Harris Team Raceskipper2.461.002–12.7−1.470.897%
2025-03-29Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophyskipper2.452.485–94.9+0.040.059%
2025-03-22Georgetown Women's Team Raceskipper2.513.2211–39.6+0.720.727%
2025-03-08St. Mary's College of MD Team Raceskipper2.26-0.740–100.1≤−3.000.2>99%
2025-03-01Georgetown Team Raceskipper2.18-0.820–60.5≤−3.000.8>99%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Fall 2026 Team page Season
Susan Rogers Women's Skipper A 1 5.0 —
Seneca Showdown Skipper A 7 7.6 2.90
KP Women's Invite Women's Skipper A 9 5.1 2.42
Cayuga Clash Skipper A 10 5.6 2.81
Spring 2026 Team page Season
Women's Western National Semis Women's Skipper B 6 6.3 3.39
MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship Women's Skipper TR 16 100% —
ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's Skipper TR 14 57% —
Graham Hall Team Race Skipper TR 18 22% —
Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's Skipper TR 16 25% —
Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race Women's Skipper TR 10 50% —
America Trophy Skipper B 14 8.0 3.17
2026 Jen Harris Team Race Women's Skipper TR 8 75% —
Fall 2025 Team page Season
Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's Skipper B 8 6.2 1.01
War Memorial Skipper A 8 9.8 3.05
Oyster Bowl Women's Women's Skipper A 9 4.9 2.93
Open Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Skipper A 6 15.0 2.71
Nevins Trophy Skipper A 4 12.0 2.85
Moody Trophy Skipper A 8 9.0 3.23
Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles Women's Singlehanded Skipper A 9 8.0 2.28
Spring 2025 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted Skipper B 8 11.2 2.35
St. Mary's College of MD Team Race Skipper TR 14 7% —
Georgetown Women's Team Race Women's Skipper TR 14 79% —
Georgetown Team Race Skipper TR 6 0% —
Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's Skipper TR 14 36% —
Fall 2024 Team page Season
Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's Skipper A 14 7.0 1.52
War Memorial Skipper B 7 7.7 3.21
Seneca Showdown Skipper A 6 8.0 2.32
MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's Skipper A 6 7.8 2.17
Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles Women's Singlehanded Skipper A 14 8.0 2.47

Linked Profiles

League Name School Year
ISSA Ava Gustafson ParkerParker '24

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →