Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/14/2024
TypeConference Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Cornell University	Gilda Dondona '28	42
2	Georgetown University	Piper Holthus '25	47
3	Cornell University	Pilar Cundey '27	75
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Kate Zurinskas '27	94
5	Old Dominion University	Gianna Dewey '27	105
6	Georgetown University	Alexa Shea '26	110
7	Cornell University	Ava Gustafson '28	112
8	Old Dominion University	Emma Friedauer '26	116
9	Georgetown University	Abigail Chang '28	131
10	Christopher Newport University	Grace Watlington '26	137
11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Lina Carper '27	139
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Elizabeth Starck '25	147
13	Georgetown University	Isabel Massey '27	153
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bennett O'Keefe '27	173
15	Old Dominion University	Olivia Gilmore '27	175
16	U. S. Naval Academy	Isabella Fadullon '25	176
17	U. S. Naval Academy	Darby Dryden '27	218

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Cornell University	Gilda Dondona '28	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	RAF	1	8	2	3	42
Georgetown University	Piper Holthus '25	4	6	9	3	3	2	2	2	9	1	2	1	1	2	47
Cornell University	Pilar Cundey '27	6	4	2	10	2	5	3	9	6	10	5	3	3	7	75
U. S. Naval Academy	Kate Zurinskas '27	2	2	6	OCS	9	3	10	4	3	3	10	14	9	1	94
Old Dominion University	Gianna Dewey '27	OCS	7	3	12	8	8	6	7	7	5	8	4	6	6	105
Georgetown University	Alexa Shea '26	3	8	14	4	7	9	5	14	4	2	3	12	12	13	110
Cornell University	Ava Gustafson '28	7	5	11	7	4	12	8	6	14	15	9	6	4	4	112
Old Dominion University	Emma Friedauer '26	5	3	13	2	10	11	7	11	5	7	15	7	11	9	116
Georgetown University	Abigail Chang '28	OCS	12	16	8	5	7	11	10	1	6	7	13	5	12	131
Christopher Newport University	Grace Watlington '26	9	13	7	9	13	15	12	16	15	9	4	2	8	5	137
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Lina Carper '27	10	14	8	14	6	10	4	13	11	4	13	15	7	10	139
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Elizabeth Starck '25	13	15	15	5	12	6	9	3	8	14	17	9	10	11	147
Georgetown University	Isabel Massey '27	14	17	5	15	14	16	13	8	10	8	6	5	14	8	153
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bennett O'Keefe '27	11	10	4	6	17	17	16	12	16	12	11	10	17	14	173
Old Dominion University	Olivia Gilmore '27	12	11	10	11	15	14	15	5	13	13	12	16	13	15	175
U. S. Naval Academy	Isabella Fadullon '25	8	9	12	13	11	4	17	17	12	16	14	11	16	16	176
U. S. Naval Academy	Darby Dryden '27	OCS	16	17	16	16	13	14	15	17	11	16	17	15	17	218

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 17 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Gilda Dondona '28	Cornell University Big Red 3	14/14	4.07	5.21	+1.13	95th → 99th	3.4	31%	3.0 / 4.0
2	Piper Holthus '25	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	2.98	3.82	+0.85	81st → 94th	2.9	4%	3.4 / 6.0
3	Pilar Cundey '27	Cornell University Big Red 2	14/14	2.17	2.92	+0.75	57th → 79th	2.5	14%	5.4 / 7.9
4	Kate Zurinskas '27	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	1.65	2.65	+1.01	41st → 70th	4.1	10%	6.7 / 9.2
5	Gianna Dewey '27	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	14/14	2.44	2.51	+0.07	62nd → 64th	0.0	60%	7.5 / 7.1
6	Alexa Shea '26	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	1.86	1.98	+0.12	47th → 51st	0.1	36%	7.9 / 8.6
7	Ava Gustafson '28	Cornell University Big Red 1	14/14	2.12	1.90	−0.22	56th → 48th	0.3	52%	8.0 / 8.0
8	Emma Friedauer '26	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	14/14	1.80	1.96	+0.16	44th → 50th	0.1	45%	8.3 / 8.7
9	Abigail Chang '28	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	14/14	1.48	1.81	+0.33	37th → 44th	0.5	48%	9.4 / 9.5
10	Grace Watlington '26	Christopher Newport University	14/14	1.29	1.35	+0.06	30th → 31st	0.0	46%	9.8 / 10.0
11	Lina Carper '27	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	1.73	1.46	−0.27	43rd → 36th	0.4	66%	9.9 / 9.0
12	Elizabeth Starck '25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	1.68	1.06	−0.62	41st → 24th	2.1	74%	10.5 / 9.1
13	Isabel Massey '27	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	0.99	0.76	−0.24	22nd → 18th	0.3	53%	10.9 / 10.7
14	Bennett O'Keefe '27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	0.59	0.36	−0.24	15th → 11th	0.2	59%	12.4 / 11.7
15	Olivia Gilmore '27	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	14/14	1.01	0.83	−0.17	23rd → 18th	0.2	78%	12.5 / 10.7
16	Isabella Fadullon '25	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	1.06	0.37	−0.68	24th → 12th	2.3	80%	12.6 / 10.6
17	Darby Dryden '27	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	0.37	-0.43	−0.79	11th → 3rd	2.5	97%	15.6 / 12.2

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F

↑ 82°F ↓ 67°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From NE (52°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1023.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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