| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 6–4 |
| 3 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 5–5 |
| 6 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 40 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.626 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.42 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 6.08 | 7.55 | 5–5 | 2.2 | +1.46 | 3.2 | 4% |
| 1 | Georgetown University | 8.82 | 10.26 | 9–1 | 7.2 | +1.43 | 1.7 | 15% |
| 4 | Cornell University | 7.35 | 8.04 | 5–5 | 3.7 | +0.69 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 6 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 6.79 | 6.91 | 4–6 | 3.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2 | Tulane University | 8.60 | 8.24 | 6–4 | 6.7 | −0.36 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 3 | Dartmouth College | 9.00 | 8.16 | 6–4 | 7.5 | −0.84 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 8 | U. S. Naval Academy | 6.76 | 5.77 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −0.99 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 7 | Old Dominion University | 7.43 | 6.22 | 3–7 | 5.3 | −1.21 | 2.0 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Wave | Green | Red | Seahawks | Statesmen | Monarchs | Midshipmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | L |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 4–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–4 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1–6 | L | W | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Wave | Green | Red | Seahawks | Statesmen | Monarchs | Midshipmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | – | – | – | – |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | – | – | – | – |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 2–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | – | – | – | – |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | – | – | – | – |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–1 | – | – | – | – | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–1 | – | – | – | – | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | W | ✕ | L |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1–2 | – | – | – | – | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Big Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Big Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
