St. Mary's College of Maryland '29
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 41.16 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.081 rating points from 290 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.40 | 74.18 | 53.57 | 7 of 14 | 11 | Team page | |
| Spring 2026 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.35 | 74.23 | 38.89 | 6 of 9 | 37 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.02 | 65.51 | 36.11 | 12 of 18 | 59 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Southern High School | 0.74 | 36.54 | 50.00 | 2 of 3 | 37 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Southern High School | 1.08 | 43.11 | 50.00 | 3 of 5 | 47 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Southern High School | -0.03 | 18.43 | 12.50 | 4 of 4 | 27 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | Southern High School | 1.05 | 38.44 | 64.29 | 3 of 7 | 31 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.05 (fleet 1.37) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–5 (50%) as crew 15–24 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 4 | 5–5 | 15–24 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 20–29 against 18.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.20 | -0.07 | 1–13 | 3.3 | −2.28 | 2.9 | >99% |
| 2026-04-11 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship | crew | 2.16 | 2.25 | 9–7 | 8.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-21 | Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race | skipper | 1.12 | 2.66 | 5–5 | 2.1 | +1.54 | 3.4 | 3% |
| 2026-02-28 | ODU Women's Team Race | crew | 2.08 | 2.76 | 5–4 | 3.9 | +0.68 | 0.6 | 30% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.1 | 1.67 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.3 | 1.55 |
| SMC Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.2 | 0.37 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A | Crew | B | 4 | 8.5 | -0.12 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.1 | -2.40 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Crew | C | 7 | 9.6 | -0.04 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Eastern National Semis Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 12.2 | -0.03 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 10.5 | -0.19 |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship Women's | Crew | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 7.5 | +0.01 |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 5.9 | +0.30 |
| Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 13.0 | +0.03 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Crew | A, B | 6 | 9.7 | -0.37 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 10.5 | +0.00 |
| Oyster Bowl Women's Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 5.1 | +0.16 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 5.4 | +0.06 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 8.6 | -0.48 |
| MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 7.9 | -0.06 |
| Chesapeake Open | Crew | B | 9 | 9.9 | +0.16 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Molly Dowling |  Southern High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
