MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship

HostGeorgetown
Date04/11/2026
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	16–0
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–5
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–7
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–7
5	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	5–8
6	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	3–10
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3–5
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	1–7
9	Fordham University	Rams	0–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,767 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 57 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.03 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 40% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	1	9.32 school −0.11	Sophia Devling / Paulina Freyre 3.36 Winborne Majette / Ava Stevens 3.11 14–0 Ava Gustafson / Sophia Mulvania 2.75 9–0 Gilda Dondona / Sophia Mulvania 3.21 7–0 Winborne Majette / Maya Conway 2.99 2–0	86%	16–0 (100%)	+2.2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	8.85 school +0.33, home +0.33	Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 3.17 Alexa Shea / Helen O’Neill 1.94 10–5 Emily Doble / Lucy Jervis 3.01 7–1 Emily Doble / Ellie Smith 3.10 4–4 Helen O’Neill / Margot Gordon 1–0	77%	11–5 (69%)	−1.3
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	7.66 school +0.52	Cho-Cho Williams / Molly Dowling 2.17 Maisy Sperry / Indiana Theurer 2.50 Lina Carper / Lauren Choi 2.46 6–2 Lina Carper / Grace Phillips 2.40 3–5	54%	9–7 (56%)	+0.3
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	6.65 school +0.23	Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.23 Josephine Sherry / Melania Gonzalez 2.31 Kate Zurinskas / Mary Dwyer 1.85	31%	9–7 (56%)	+4.0
5	George Washington University Revolutionaries	9	5.93	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Ilana Umanskiy 2.61 Hayden Clary / Julia Mole 1.77 Eva Wieting / Adrian Atwater 1.35 4–4 Eva Wieting / Caitlyn Schwartz 1.40 1–4	21%	5–8 (38%)	+2.3
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	6	6.49 school +0.11	Esme Gonzalez / Janet Fu 2.07 Adra Ivancich / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 2.80 Sadie Yoder / Pelin Yuksel 1.47	32%	3–10 (23%)	−1.2
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	7.04 school +0.17	Deana Fedulova / Ella Donaldson 2.75 Sabrina Starck / Olivia Wilkins 2.37 Lauren Campbell / Reilly Roedel 1.73	46%	3–5 (38%)	−0.6
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	3	7.62 school +0.24	Arabella Duer / Morgan Auth 2.38 Gianna Dewey / Petra Humphrey 2.27 Marina Conde / Molly Hanson 2.71	58%	1–7 (12%)	−3.7
9	Fordham University Rams	8	6.02	Lauren Murray / Alana Shigekane 1.85 Anna Robertson / Samantha Hemans 1.58 Lizzie Cochran / Parker Laing 2.56 0–6 Lizzie Cochran / Nora Donahue 2.61 0–2	24%	0–8 (0%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Cornell University	9.32	12.32	16–0	13.8	≥+3.00	3.4	8%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	6.65	8.03	9–7	5.0	+1.38	4.0	2%
5	George Washington University	5.93	6.95	5–8	2.7	+1.02	1.7	10%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	7.66	7.77	9–7	8.7	+0.11	0.0	55%
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	7.04	6.61	3–5	3.7	−0.44	0.2	83%
2	Georgetown University	8.85	8.29	11–5	12.3	−0.57	0.5	89%
6	University of Pennsylvania	6.49	5.91	3–10	4.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
8	Old Dominion University	7.62	4.86	1–7	4.6	−2.75	6.6	>99%
9	Fordham University	6.02	3.02	0–8	2.0	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.11	6.11	16–0	13.8	≥+3.00	3.4	8%
Sophia Devling	Cornell University	3.36	6.36	16–0	13.8	≥+3.00	3.4	8%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.75	5.75	9–0	8.0	≥+3.00	1.4	36%
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	3.21	6.21	7–0	5.7	≥+3.00	2.0	23%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.23	3.60	9–7	5.0	+1.38	4.0	2%
Josephine Sherry	U. S. Naval Academy	2.31	3.69	9–7	5.0	+1.38	4.0	2%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.85	3.23	9–7	5.0	+1.38	4.0	2%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.61	3.63	5–8	2.7	+1.02	1.7	10%
Eva Wieting	George Washington University	1.35	2.37	5–8	2.7	+1.02	1.7	10%
Hayden Clary	George Washington University	1.77	2.80	5–8	2.7	+1.02	1.7	10%
Cho-Cho Williams	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.17	2.28	9–7	8.7	+0.11	0.0	55%
Lina Carper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.46	2.57	9–7	8.7	+0.11	0.0	55%
Maisy Sperry	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.50	2.61	9–7	8.7	+0.11	0.0	55%
Deana Fedulova	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.75	2.31	3–5	3.7	−0.44	0.2	83%
Sabrina Starck	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.37	1.93	3–5	3.7	−0.44	0.2	83%
Lauren Campbell	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	1.73	1.30	3–5	3.7	−0.44	0.2	83%
Kelly Bates	Georgetown University	3.17	2.61	11–5	12.3	−0.57	0.5	89%
Emily Doble	Georgetown University	3.01	2.44	11–5	12.3	−0.57	0.5	89%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	2.07	1.50	3–10	4.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.80	2.23	3–10	4.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
Sadie Yoder	University of Pennsylvania	1.47	0.90	3–10	4.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
Alexa Shea	Georgetown University	1.94	1.34	10–5	11.3	−0.60	0.6	90%
Arabella Duer	Old Dominion University	2.38	-0.37	1–7	4.6	−2.75	6.6	>99%
Gianna Dewey	Old Dominion University	2.27	-0.48	1–7	4.6	−2.75	6.6	>99%
Marina Conde	Old Dominion University	2.71	-0.04	1–7	4.6	−2.75	6.6	>99%
Lauren Murray	Fordham University	1.85	-1.15	0–8	2.0	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%
Lizzie Cochran	Fordham University	2.56	-0.44	0–8	2.0	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%
Anna Robertson	Fordham University	1.58	-1.42	0–8	2.0	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	40%	upset
1	2	Georgetown University	George Washington University	95%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	51%
1	4	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	65%
1	6	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	7	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
1	8	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	34%	upset
1	9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	74%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	27%	upset
1	11	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	91%
1	12	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	85%
1	13	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
1	14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	36%	upset
1	15	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	62%
1	16	Cornell University	George Washington University	98%
1	17	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	18	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	83%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	54%
1	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	35%	upset
1	21	George Washington University	Fordham University	47%	upset
1	22	Cornell University	Georgetown University	67%
1	23	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	24%	upset
1	24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
1	25	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	26	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
1	27	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	15%	upset
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	77%
1	29	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
1	30	Cornell University	Fordham University	95%
1	31	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	36%	upset
1	32	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	66%
1	33	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	78%
1	34	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	83%
1	35	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	25%	upset
1	36	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	86%
4	52	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
4	53	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
4	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	10%	upset
4	55	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
4	56	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	26%	upset
4	57	Cornell University	Georgetown University	67%
6	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	24%	upset
6	38	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
6	39	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	37%	upset
6	40	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
6	41	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	91%
6	42	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	66%
6	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	77%
6	44	Cornell University	George Washington University	97%
6	45	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
6	46	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
6	47	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
6	48	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
6	49	Cornell University	Georgetown University	67%
6	50	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	54%
6	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	84%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Revolutionaries	Quakers	Statesmen	Monarchs	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	4–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen
Cornell University Big Red	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–2	L	✕	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	0–3	L	L	✕	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–1	L	W	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Revolutionaries	Quakers
Cornell University Big Red	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
4	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
5	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
6	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
7	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
8	Revolutionaries	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
9	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
10	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
11	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
12	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
13	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
14	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
15	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
16	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
18	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
19	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
20	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
21	Revolutionaries	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
22	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
23	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
24	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
25	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
26	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
27	Revolutionaries	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
29	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
30	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
31	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
32	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Revolutionaries	1-4-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
35	Revolutionaries	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
36	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
53	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
54	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
55	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
56	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
57	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
37	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
38	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
39	Revolutionaries	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
40	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
41	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
42	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
44	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
45	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
46	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
47	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
48	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
49	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
50	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
51	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Ava Gustafson '28 Gilda Dondona '28 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Mulvania '26 Paulina Freyre '29 Ava Stevens '28 Maya Conway '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alexa Shea '26 Emily Doble '28 Helen O’Neill '27 Kelly Bates '26	Helen O’Neill '27 Ellie Smith '28 Lucy Jervis '27 Margot Gordon '26 Anna Brzezinski '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Cho-Cho Williams '26 Lina Carper '27 Maisy Sperry '29	Molly Dowling '29 Lauren Choi '29 Grace Phillips '27 Indiana Theurer '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Josephine Sherry '27 Kate Zurinskas '27	Eleanor Niehoff '26 Melania Gonzalez '28 Mary Dwyer '27
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Eva Wieting '26 Hayden Clary '28	Ilana Umanskiy '29 Caitlyn Schwartz '28 Adrian Atwater '28 Julia Mole '27
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sadie Yoder '28	Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Janet Fu '27 Pelin Yuksel '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Deana Fedulova '28 Lauren Campbell '28 Sabrina Starck '28	Ella Donaldson '27 Reilly Roedel '27 Olivia Wilkins '28
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Arabella Duer '29 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28	Morgan Auth '27 Petra Humphrey '29 Molly Hanson '27
Fordham University	Rams	Anna Robertson '28 Lauren Murray '28 Lizzie Cochran '27	Samantha Hemans '27 Alana Shigekane '27 Parker Laing '28 Nora Donahue '28

Conditions — 04/11/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.9 kn

avg · max 8.9 kn

Gusts to 21.6 kn

From NNW (334°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1025.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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