Cornell University '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (fleet 2.42) | 235 of 328 | +0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–24 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 10–24 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 10–24 against 7.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.02 | 2.41 | 4–12 | 3.0 | +0.39 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2026-03-21 | Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race | skipper | 1.97 | 2.65 | 5–5 | 3.7 | +0.69 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 2026-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 1.74 | 3.38 | 1–7 | 0.4 | +1.64 | 0.8 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Seneca Showdown | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.4 | 2.13 |
| Cayuga Clash | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 2.82 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.8 | 2.46 |
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.8 | 1.83 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.4 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 2.31 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | 2.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
