Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy

HostBrown
Date03/28/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–2
2	Brown University	Bears	13–3
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	11–5
4	Harvard University	Crimson	11–5
5	Tulane University	Green Wave	7–9
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	6–10
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–9
8	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–10
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	6–10
10	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–10
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	5–11
12	Cornell University	Big Red	4–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,944 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 96 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.547 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.00 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	10.74 school +0.42	Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.48 12–2 Alice Schmid / Piper Blackband 3.34 12–2 Samara Walshe / Kate Myles 3.63 7–2 Samara Walshe / Avery Baldwin 3.58 6–0 Kit Harned / Ellie Harned 2.74 2–0 Piper Blackband / Alice Schmid 3.29 1–0 Avery Baldwin / Alice Schmid 1–0 Samara Walshe / Piper Blackband 3.61 1–0	78%	14–2 (88%)	+1.5
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.63 school +0.30, home +0.36	Katharine Doble / Reese Corckran 3.36 11–3 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.49 7–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Gabby Collins 3.07 7–1 Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.56 6–2 Katherine Mcnamara / Katherine Majette 3.08 6–2 Katharine Doble / Sidney Moyer 3.40 2–0	76%	13–3 (81%)	+0.9
3	Yale University Bulldogs	3	10.58 school +0.36	Carly Kieding / Sarah Moeder 3.29 Dorothy Mendelblatt / Julia Miller 3.50 Elle Sykes / Carmen Berg 3.43 10–4 Elle Sykes / Clara Díaz Suárez 3.24 1–1	75%	11–5 (69%)	−1.0
4	Harvard University Crimson	5	9.46 school +0.27	Zoey Ziskind / Amelie Zucker 3.38 Kate Danielson / Jj Drummond 3.14 8–4 Sophia Montgomery / Hanah Youn 2.67 6–3 Sophia Montgomery / Katherine Shin 2.65 3–2 Kate Danielson / Katherine Shin 3.10 3–1 Sophia Montgomery / Theresa Straw 2.68 2–0	51%	11–5 (69%)	+2.8
5	Tulane University Green Wave	10	8.62 school +0.07	Oakley Cunningham / Hope Breslin 2.54 Ava Anderson / Ella May Corckran 3.43 5–9 Gabriela Vassel / Caitlin Briggs 2.56 5–5 Gabriela Vassel / Charlotte Casey 2.54 2–4 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 3.40 2–0	33%	7–9 (44%)	+1.7
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	9	8.87 school +0.49	Tavia Smith / Mackenzie Speece 2.99 Maren Matthews / Elyssa Franklin 2.23 Lucy Meagher / Katherine Mcgagh 3.16 4–10 Lucy Meagher / Alexandra Chigas 3.05 2–0	39%	6–10 (38%)	−0.3
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	8.87 school +0.40	Olivia Drulard / Sudi Zhao 3.23 Alders Kulynych-Irvin / Grace Patterson 2.60 Charlotte West / Blake Oberbauer 2.59 6–8 Charlotte West / Sophie Menyhart 2.65 1–1	47%	7–9 (44%)	−0.6
8	College of Charleston Cougars	6	8.96 school +0.49	Ashley Alfortish / Lucy Zinn 2.86 Bella Shakespeare / Lucy Elvart 3.17 2–8 Georgia Shuster / Gaelen Adam 2.44 2–8 Bella Shakespeare / Paige Lubrano 3.08 4–2 Georgia Shuster / Lucy Elvart 2.48 4–2	50%	6–10 (38%)	−1.9
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	8.05 school +0.17	Emma Wang / Layla Bursor 2.38 Brooke Barry / Christine Keedy Brown 2.78 Karya Basaraner / Sophia Woodbury 2.68 5–7 Karya Basaraner / Tamsin Horne 2.70 1–3	29%	6–10 (38%)	+1.4
10	Tufts University Jumbos	4	9.29 school +0.41	Ella Hubbard / Dory Russell 2.82 Maddie Janzen / Lilly Ladd 3.06 Sophia Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 2.99	58%	6–10 (38%)	−3.2
11	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	8.78	Rebecca Schill / Maggie Tripp 2.71 Lauren Russler / Mairéad Reitzel 3.26 3–7 Kyra Phelan / Maizie Bartlett 2.77 3–7 Lauren Russler / Kaile Olson 3.12 2–4 Kyra Phelan / Mairéad Reitzel 2.92 2–4	45%	5–11 (31%)	−2.3
12	Cornell University Big Red	12	7.55 school −0.11	Gilda Dondona / Laine Reshefsky 3.02 Adrianna D'Agati / Kate Constan 2.02 3–10 Ava Gustafson / Grace Penque 2.52 2–9 Ava Gustafson / Maeve Katics 2.53 2–3 Adrianna D'Agati / Grace Penque 2.09 1–2	19%	4–12 (25%)	+1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Harvard University	9.46	10.41	11–5	8.2	+0.95	1.9	9%
1	Stanford University	10.74	11.47	14–2	12.5	+0.72	0.7	28%
5	Tulane University	8.62	9.18	7–9	5.3	+0.56	0.7	23%
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.05	8.51	6–10	4.6	+0.46	0.5	29%
12	Cornell University	7.55	7.94	4–12	3.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
2	Brown University	10.63	11.01	13–3	12.1	+0.38	0.2	43%
6	Roger Williams University	8.87	8.79	6–10	6.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
7	Dartmouth College	8.87	8.70	7–9	7.6	−0.18	0.1	72%
3	Yale University	10.58	10.22	11–5	12.0	−0.36	0.3	83%
8	College of Charleston	8.96	8.37	6–10	7.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
11	Bowdoin College	8.78	8.07	5–11	7.3	−0.71	1.1	94%
10	Tufts University	9.29	8.31	6–10	9.2	−0.98	2.3	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sophia Montgomery	Harvard University	2.67	3.61	11–5	8.2	+0.95	1.9	9%
Kate Danielson	Harvard University	3.14	4.08	11–5	8.2	+0.95	1.9	9%
Zoey Ziskind	Harvard University	3.38	4.33	11–5	8.2	+0.95	1.9	9%
Samara Walshe	Stanford University	3.63	4.35	14–2	12.5	+0.72	0.7	28%
Alice Schmid	Stanford University	3.34	3.94	12–2	10.9	+0.60	0.5	35%
Oakley Cunningham	Tulane University	2.54	3.10	7–9	5.3	+0.56	0.7	23%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	3.43	3.99	7–9	5.3	+0.56	0.7	23%
Gabriela Vassel	Tulane University	2.56	3.12	7–9	5.3	+0.56	0.7	23%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.48	4.03	12–2	11.0	+0.55	0.4	38%
Emma Wang	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.38	2.84	6–10	4.6	+0.46	0.5	29%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.78	3.24	6–10	4.6	+0.46	0.5	29%
Karya Basaraner	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.68	3.14	6–10	4.6	+0.46	0.5	29%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.52	2.91	4–12	3.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	3.02	3.42	4–12	3.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
Adrianna D'Agati	Cornell University	2.02	2.41	4–12	3.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
Laura Hamilton	Brown University	3.49	3.87	13–3	12.1	+0.38	0.2	43%
Katharine Doble	Brown University	3.36	3.74	13–3	12.1	+0.38	0.2	43%
Katherine Mcnamara	Brown University	3.07	3.44	13–3	12.1	+0.38	0.2	43%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	3.16	3.08	6–10	6.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Tavia Smith	Roger Williams University	2.99	2.90	6–10	6.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Maren Matthews	Roger Williams University	2.23	2.14	6–10	6.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Olivia Drulard	Dartmouth College	3.23	3.06	7–9	7.6	−0.18	0.1	72%
Charlotte West	Dartmouth College	2.59	2.41	7–9	7.6	−0.18	0.1	72%
Alders Kulynych-Irvin	Dartmouth College	2.60	2.43	7–9	7.6	−0.18	0.1	72%
Carly Kieding	Yale University	3.29	2.93	11–5	12.0	−0.36	0.3	83%
Dorothy Mendelblatt	Yale University	3.50	3.14	11–5	12.0	−0.36	0.3	83%
Elle Sykes	Yale University	3.43	3.07	11–5	12.0	−0.36	0.3	83%
Bella Shakespeare	College of Charleston	3.17	2.57	6–10	7.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
Ashley Alfortish	College of Charleston	2.86	2.26	6–10	7.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
Georgia Shuster	College of Charleston	2.44	1.85	6–10	7.9	−0.59	0.8	91%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	3.26	2.55	5–11	7.3	−0.71	1.1	94%
Kyra Phelan	Bowdoin College	2.77	2.06	5–11	7.3	−0.71	1.1	94%
Rebecca Schill	Bowdoin College	2.71	2.00	5–11	7.3	−0.71	1.1	94%
Ella Hubbard	Tufts University	2.82	1.84	6–10	9.2	−0.98	2.3	98%
Maddie Janzen	Tufts University	3.06	2.08	6–10	9.2	−0.98	2.3	98%
Sophia Hubbard	Tufts University	2.99	2.01	6–10	9.2	−0.98	2.3	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tulane University	Harvard University	30%	upset
1	2	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	39%	upset
1	3	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	81%
1	4	Brown University	Bowdoin College	86%
1	5	Yale University	College of Charleston	84%
1	6	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
1	7	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	44%	upset
1	8	Harvard University	Cornell University	88%
1	9	Brown University	Tufts University	79%
1	10	Yale University	Roger Williams University	85%
1	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	32%	upset
1	12	Stanford University	College of Charleston	87%
1	13	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	20%	upset
1	14	Tulane University	Brown University	12%	upset
1	15	Yale University	Harvard University	76%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	22%	upset
1	17	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
1	18	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	89%
1	19	Brown University	Cornell University	95%
1	20	Yale University	Dartmouth College	85%
1	21	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	36%	upset
1	22	Harvard University	College of Charleston	62%
1	23	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	63%
1	24	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	77%
1	25	Brown University	Yale University	52%
1	26	Cornell University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	38%	upset
1	27	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	47%	upset
1	28	Bowdoin College	Tulane University	54%
1	29	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	64%
1	30	Stanford University	Tufts University	78%
1	31	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	32	Brown University	College of Charleston	84%
1	33	Cornell University	Bowdoin College	22%	upset
1	34	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
1	35	Tulane University	Tufts University	33%	upset
1	36	Stanford University	Harvard University	80%
1	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	28%	upset
1	38	Yale University	Bowdoin College	86%
1	39	Brown University	Roger Williams University	86%
1	40	Tufts University	Cornell University	85%
1	41	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	64%
1	42	Stanford University	Tulane University	90%
1	43	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	54%
1	44	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	70%
1	45	Yale University	Tufts University	79%
1	46	Harvard University	Brown University	23%	upset
1	47	Tulane University	Cornell University	75%
1	48	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	88%
1	49	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	47%	upset
1	50	College of Charleston	Tufts University	41%	upset
1	51	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	52	Yale University	Tulane University	85%
1	53	Brown University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	54	Stanford University	Cornell University	97%
1	55	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	40%	upset
1	56	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	66%
1	57	Tulane University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
1	58	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	31%	upset
1	59	Yale University	Cornell University	95%
1	60	Brown University	Stanford University	43%	upset
1	61	Harvard University	Tufts University	55%
1	62	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	54%
1	63	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
1	64	College of Charleston	Cornell University	81%
1	65	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	66	Stanford University	Yale University	57%
6	67	Yale University	Brown University	48%	upset
6	68	Stanford University	Harvard University	80%
6	69	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	54%
6	70	Stanford University	Yale University	57%
6	71	Brown University	Roger Williams University	86%
6	72	Harvard University	Tulane University	70%
6	73	Yale University	Roger Williams University	85%
6	74	Stanford University	Tulane University	90%
6	75	Brown University	Harvard University	77%
6	76	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	77%
6	77	Brown University	Tulane University	88%
6	78	Harvard University	Yale University	25%	upset
6	79	Brown University	Stanford University	43%	upset
6	80	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	64%
6	81	Tulane University	Yale University	15%	upset
6	82	Cornell University	College of Charleston	20%	upset
6	83	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
6	84	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	60%
6	85	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Cornell University	61%
6	86	College of Charleston	Tufts University	41%	upset
6	87	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	52%
6	88	Tufts University	Cornell University	85%
6	89	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
6	90	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	54%
6	91	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	77%
6	92	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	47%	upset
6	93	Bowdoin College	Cornell University	77%
6	94	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
6	95	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	62%
6	96	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	79%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bears	Bulldogs	Crimson	Wave	Hawks	Green	Cougars	Engineers	Jumbos	Bears	Red
Stanford University Cardinal	10–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	9–2	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	9–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	6–5	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L	L
College of Charleston Cougars	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	W	✕	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–8	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L
Cornell University Big Red	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bears	Bulldogs	Crimson	Wave	Hawks	Green	Cougars	Engineers	Jumbos	Bears	Red
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	4–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Yale University Bulldogs	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Tulane University Green Wave	1–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L	–	–	–	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	–	–	–	–	–	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W	W	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–4	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	W	L	W	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–3	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–4	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
2	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
3	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
7	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
8	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
9	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
11	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
13	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
14	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
15	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
16	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
17	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
19	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
20	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
21	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
22	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
23	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
24	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
26	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
27	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
28	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
29	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
32	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
33	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
34	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
35	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
37	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
39	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
40	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
41	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
42	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
43	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
44	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
45	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
46	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
47	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
49	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
50	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
51	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
52	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
53	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
54	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
55	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
56	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
57	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
58	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
59	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
61	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
62	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
63	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
64	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
65	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
66	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
67	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
69	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
70	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
71	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
72	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
74	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
75	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
77	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
78	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
79	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
80	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
81	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
82	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
83	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
84	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
85	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
86	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
87	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
88	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
89	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
90	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
91	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
92	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
93	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
94	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
95	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
96	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Alice Schmid '27 Avery Baldwin '29 Ellie Harned '26 Kit Harned '27 Piper Blackband '28 Samara Walshe '29	Piper Blackband '28 Alice Schmid '27 Kit Harned '27 Ellie Harned '26 Kate Myles '29 Avery Baldwin '29
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27	Reese Corckran '28 Sidney Moyer '27 Gabby Collins '28 Katherine Majette '27 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carly Kieding '29 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Elle Sykes '27	Sarah Moeder '26 Julia Miller '26 Clara Díaz Suárez '28 Carmen Berg '26
Harvard University	Crimson	Kate Danielson '28 Sophia Montgomery '25 Zoey Ziskind '27	Jj Drummond '27 Katherine Shin '27 Hanah Youn '28 Theresa Straw '28 Amelie Zucker '28
Tulane University	Green Wave	Ava Anderson '27 Gabriela Vassel '28 Oakley Cunningham '27	Ella May Corckran '26 Catherine Anderson '26 Caitlin Briggs '27 Charlotte Casey '29 Hope Breslin '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Lucy Meagher '27 Maren Matthews '26 Tavia Smith '27	Alexandra Chigas '26 Katherine Mcgagh '26 Elyssa Franklin '26 Mackenzie Speece '28
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Alders Kulynych-Irvin '29 Charlotte West '28 Olivia Drulard '27	Grace Patterson '29 Blake Oberbauer '29 Sophie Menyhart '27 Sudi Zhao '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Ashley Alfortish '27 Bella Shakespeare '27 Georgia Shuster '29	Lucy Zinn '28 Lucy Elvart '28 Paige Lubrano '26 Gaelen Adam '29
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Emma Wang '27 Karya Basaraner '28	Christine Keedy Brown '28 Layla Bursor '29 Sophia Woodbury '28 Tamsin Horne '28
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ella Hubbard '26 Maddie Janzen '29 Sophia Hubbard '28	Dory Russell '28 Lilly Ladd '26 Eloise Goedkoop '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Maizie Bartlett '27 Mairéad Reitzel '28 Kaile Olson '27 Maggie Tripp '29
Cornell University	Big Red	Adrianna D'Agati '29 Ava Gustafson '28 Gilda Dondona '28	Kate Constan '26 Grace Penque '29 Maeve Katics '26 Laine Reshefsky '28

Conditions — 03/28/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 36% · Pressure 1028.3 hPa

Temperature

35°F

↑ 39°F ↓ 27°F

Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 9.6 kn

Gusts to 23.3 kn

From NNW (329°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity36% Pressure1028.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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