Yale University '29
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.60 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.118 rating points from 38 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.92 (fleet 3.99) | 49 of 331 | +0.03 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 87–32 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 9 | 87–32 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (119 matches) the record is 87–32 against 83.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.38 | 4.51 | 18–4 | 14.5 | +1.13 | 2.6 | 6% |
| 2026-04-11 | NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler | skipper | 3.28 | 3.51 | 15–4 | 14.3 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2026-04-04 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.43 | 2.41 | 3–4 | 4.1 | −1.01 | 0.8 | 95% |
| 2026-03-28 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.29 | 2.94 | 11–5 | 12.0 | −0.36 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2026-03-21 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.29 | 3.39 | 13–3 | 12.8 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-14 | Women's SNE Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 2.71 | 9–4 | 10.2 | −0.63 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2026-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.48 | 4.04 | 9–5 | 7.9 | +0.56 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2026-03-01 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.26 | 3.99 | 7–1 | 6.3 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 2026-02-28 | Liam O'Keefe '26 Trophy Team Race | skipper | 3.40 | 4.41 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.01 | 0.6 | 35% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Carly Kieding |  San Marcos High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
