NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler

HostTufts
Date04/11/2026
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–4
2	Brown University	Bears	12–7
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	12–7
4	Harvard University	Crimson	11–8
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–7
6	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9–7
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	7–9
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	2–14
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	1–8
10	University of Rhode Island	Rams	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,767 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 79 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.514 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.08 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 50% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.51 school +0.31	Dorothy Mendelblatt / Julia Miller 3.49 Carly Kieding / Sarah Moeder 3.28 Elle Sykes / Carmen Berg 3.46 12–3 Elle Sykes / Clara Díaz Suárez 3.23 3–1	76%	15–4 (79%)	+0.6
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.25 school +0.26	Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.56 10–6 Katherine Mcnamara / Katherine Majette 3.10 10–6 Katharine Doble / Reese Corckran 3.40 7–5 Katharine Doble / Sidney Moyer 3.43 4–2 Katherine Mcnamara / Gabby Collins 3.14 2–1 Sidney Moyer / Michelle Kaneti 2.63 2–0 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.50 1–1	71%	12–7 (63%)	−1.6
3	Tufts University Jumbos	5	9.52 school +0.37, home +0.33	Ella Hubbard / Kate Castleberry 2.86 11–3 Maddie Janzen / Lilly Ladd 3.03 11–3 Sophia Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 2.94 11–3 Ella Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 2.84 1–4 Maddie Janzen / Amelia Traver 2.95 1–4 Sophia Hubbard / Lilly Ladd 2.97 1–4	53%	12–7 (63%)	+2.0
4	Harvard University Crimson	4	9.64 school +0.30	Sophia Montgomery / Katherine Shin 2.74 Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 3.23 10–6 Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 3.35 10–6 Kate Danielson / Jj Drummond 3.18 1–2 Zoey Ziskind / Amelie Zucker 3.44 1–2	56%	11–8 (58%)	+0.3
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	9.92 school +0.42	Bella Casaretto / Lilly Baker 3.55 Olivia Drulard / Sudi Zhao 3.18 Charlotte West / Phoebe Lee 2.80 7–5 Charlotte West / Grace Patterson 2.66 2–2	66%	9–7 (56%)	−1.5
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7	8.54	Lauren Russler / Kaile Olson 3.17 Kyra Phelan / Maizie Bartlett 2.75 Rebecca Schill / Maggie Tripp 2.58	35%	9–7 (56%)	+3.3
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	6	8.95 school +0.49	Maren Matthews / Elyssa Franklin 2.27 Lucy Meagher / Katherine Mcgagh 3.14 Tavia Smith / Mackenzie Speece 3.03	44%	7–9 (44%)	−0.0
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	7.99 school +0.11	Brooke Barry / Christine Keedy Brown 2.80 1–8 Karya Basaraner / Sophia Woodbury 2.67 1–8 Emma Wang / Layla Bursor 2.38 1–8 Brooke Barry / Kaitlyn Beaver 2.70 1–6 Karya Basaraner / Tamsin Horne 2.70 1–6 Emma Wang / Alice Dunning 2.49 1–6	24%	2–14 (12%)	−1.9
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	7.67 school +0.12	Julia Conneely / Olivia Spada 2.84 Madeline Murphy / Sydney Zylinski 2.56 1–7 Meara Conley / Allison Nystrom 2.11 1–6 Ella Demand / Allison Nystrom 2.21 0–2 Madeline Murphy / Grace Boudreau 2.53 0–1	24%	1–8 (11%)	−1.2
10	University of Rhode Island Rams	10	6.85	Ariana Schwartz / Kaylee Good 1.87 Emaline Ouellette / Savannah Miner 2.00 Kytalin Hendrickson / Erin Little 2.95	12%	1–8 (11%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Bowdoin College	8.54	9.60	9–7	5.7	+1.06	2.6	5%
3	Tufts University	9.52	10.05	12–7	10.0	+0.53	0.8	22%
1	Yale University	10.51	10.71	15–4	14.4	+0.20	0.1	49%
4	Harvard University	9.64	9.73	11–8	10.7	+0.09	0.0	53%
7	Roger Williams University	8.95	8.94	7–9	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
10	University of Rhode Island	6.85	6.74	1–8	1.1	−0.11	0.0	70%
2	Brown University	10.25	9.82	12–7	13.6	−0.43	0.5	87%
5	Dartmouth College	9.92	9.43	9–7	10.5	−0.49	0.5	88%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	7.99	7.01	2–14	3.9	−0.98	1.2	95%
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.67	6.54	1–8	2.2	−1.13	0.9	94%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	3.17	4.23	9–7	5.7	+1.06	2.6	5%
Kyra Phelan	Bowdoin College	2.75	3.81	9–7	5.7	+1.06	2.6	5%
Rebecca Schill	Bowdoin College	2.58	3.64	9–7	5.7	+1.06	2.6	5%
Ella Hubbard	Tufts University	2.86	3.39	12–7	10.0	+0.53	0.8	22%
Maddie Janzen	Tufts University	3.03	3.56	12–7	10.0	+0.53	0.8	22%
Sophia Hubbard	Tufts University	2.94	3.47	12–7	10.0	+0.53	0.8	22%
Dorothy Mendelblatt	Yale University	3.49	3.69	15–4	14.4	+0.20	0.1	49%
Carly Kieding	Yale University	3.28	3.48	15–4	14.4	+0.20	0.1	49%
Elle Sykes	Yale University	3.46	3.66	15–4	14.4	+0.20	0.1	49%
Sophia Montgomery	Harvard University	2.74	2.83	11–8	10.7	+0.09	0.0	53%
Kate Danielson	Harvard University	3.23	3.32	11–8	10.7	+0.09	0.0	53%
Zoey Ziskind	Harvard University	3.35	3.44	11–8	10.7	+0.09	0.0	53%
Maren Matthews	Roger Williams University	2.27	2.26	7–9	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	3.14	3.13	7–9	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Tavia Smith	Roger Williams University	3.03	3.02	7–9	7.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Ariana Schwartz	University of Rhode Island	1.87	1.76	1–8	1.1	−0.11	0.0	70%
Emaline Ouellette	University of Rhode Island	2.00	1.89	1–8	1.1	−0.11	0.0	70%
Kytalin Hendrickson	University of Rhode Island	2.95	2.84	1–8	1.1	−0.11	0.0	70%
Katherine Mcnamara	Brown University	3.10	2.67	12–7	13.6	−0.43	0.5	87%
Laura Hamilton	Brown University	3.56	3.09	11–7	12.7	−0.46	0.6	88%
Katharine Doble	Brown University	3.40	2.91	11–7	12.7	−0.49	0.6	89%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.55	3.06	9–7	10.5	−0.49	0.5	88%
Charlotte West	Dartmouth College	2.80	2.31	9–7	10.5	−0.49	0.5	88%
Olivia Drulard	Dartmouth College	3.18	2.69	9–7	10.5	−0.49	0.5	88%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.80	1.82	2–14	3.9	−0.98	1.2	95%
Karya Basaraner	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.67	1.70	2–14	3.9	−0.98	1.2	95%
Emma Wang	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.38	1.40	2–14	3.9	−0.98	1.2	95%
Meara Conley	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.11	1.12	1–6	1.9	−0.99	0.6	93%
Julia Conneely	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.84	1.71	1–8	2.2	−1.13	0.9	94%
Madeline Murphy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.56	1.43	1–8	2.2	−1.13	0.9	94%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
1	2	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	95%
1	3	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	79%
1	4	Brown University	Tufts University	71%
1	5	Yale University	Bowdoin College	86%
1	6	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	45%	upset
1	7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	59%
1	8	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	93%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Yale University	20%	upset
1	10	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	28%	upset
1	11	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	90%
1	12	Harvard University	Brown University	32%	upset
1	13	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	14	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	15	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
1	16	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
1	17	Dartmouth College	Yale University	36%	upset
1	18	Tufts University	Harvard University	46%	upset
1	19	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
1	20	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	21	Brown University	Yale University	44%	upset
1	22	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
1	23	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	73%
1	24	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	25	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
1	26	Yale University	Tufts University	73%
1	27	Roger Williams University	Brown University	20%	upset
1	28	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	69%
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	12%	upset
1	30	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	25%	upset
1	31	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	64%
1	32	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	98%
1	33	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
1	34	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	35	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	80%
1	36	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	37	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
1	38	Yale University	Harvard University	72%
1	39	Dartmouth College	Brown University	41%	upset
1	40	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	70%
1	41	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	25%	upset
1	42	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	66%
1	43	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	44	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
1	45	Brown University	Bowdoin College	85%
4	74	Brown University	Tufts University	71%
4	75	Yale University	Harvard University	72%
4	76	Harvard University	Brown University	33%	upset
4	77	Yale University	Tufts University	73%
4	78	Tufts University	Harvard University	46%	upset
4	79	Yale University	Brown University	56%
8	46	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	25%	upset
8	47	Tufts University	Yale University	27%	upset
8	48	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	73%
8	49	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	91%
8	50	Yale University	Bowdoin College	86%
8	51	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	45%	upset
8	52	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
8	53	Brown University	Roger Williams University	80%
8	54	Yale University	Dartmouth College	64%
8	55	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
8	56	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	66%
8	57	Brown University	Tufts University	71%
8	58	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
8	59	Yale University	Roger Williams University	80%
8	60	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	72%
8	61	Brown University	Harvard University	67%
8	62	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
8	63	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
8	64	Yale University	Harvard University	72%
8	65	Bowdoin College	Brown University	15%	upset
8	66	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	64%
8	67	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
8	68	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	80%
8	69	Yale University	Brown University	56%
8	70	Harvard University	Tufts University	54%
8	71	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	60%
8	72	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
8	73	Brown University	Dartmouth College	59%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Jumbos	Crimson	Green	Bears	Hawks	Engineers	Bears	Rams
Yale University Bulldogs	6–3	✕	L	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–3	W	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–3	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Jumbos	Crimson
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	✕	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Jumbos	Crimson	Green	Bears	Hawks	Engineers
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
2	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6 DNS
3	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
7	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
9	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
10	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
11	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
12	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
13	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
15	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
16	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
17	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
18	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
19	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
20	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
21	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
23	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
24	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
25	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
26	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
27	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
28	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
29	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
30	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
31	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
33	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
34	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
35	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
36	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
37	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
39	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
40	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
41	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
42	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
45	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
74	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
75	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
76	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
78	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
79	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
46	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
47	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
48	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
49	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
51	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
52	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
53	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
54	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
55	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
56	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
57	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
58	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
59	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
60	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
61	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
62	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
63	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
65	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
66	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
67	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
68	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
69	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
70	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
71	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
72	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
73	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carly Kieding '29 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Elle Sykes '27	Sarah Moeder '26 Julia Miller '26 Carmen Berg '26 Clara Díaz Suárez '28
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27 Sidney Moyer '27	Sidney Moyer '27 Reese Corckran '28 Katherine Majette '27 Gabby Collins '28 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Michelle Kaneti '29
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ella Hubbard '26 Maddie Janzen '29 Sophia Hubbard '28	Kate Castleberry '28 Eloise Goedkoop '27 Lilly Ladd '26 Amelia Traver '28
Harvard University	Crimson	Kate Danielson '28 Sophia Montgomery '25 Zoey Ziskind '27	Amelie Zucker '28 Jj Drummond '27 Katherine Shin '27 Peyton Hadfield '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Charlotte West '28 Olivia Drulard '27	Lilly Baker '27 Grace Patterson '29 Phoebe Lee '26 Sudi Zhao '26
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Maizie Bartlett '27 Kaile Olson '27 Maggie Tripp '29
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Lucy Meagher '27 Maren Matthews '26 Tavia Smith '27	Katherine Mcgagh '26 Elyssa Franklin '26 Mackenzie Speece '28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Emma Wang '27 Karya Basaraner '28	Kaitlyn Beaver '29 Christine Keedy Brown '28 Alice Dunning '29 Layla Bursor '29 Tamsin Horne '28 Sophia Woodbury '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Ella Demand '28 Julia Conneely '26 Madeline Murphy '29 Meara Conley '28	Allison Nystrom '26 Olivia Spada '28 Sydney Zylinski '29 Grace Boudreau '29
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Ariana Schwartz '27 Emaline Ouellette '28 Kytalin Hendrickson '26	Kaylee Good '26 Savannah Miner '28 Erin Little '28

Conditions — 04/11/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.7 kn

avg · max 11.9 kn

Gusts to 28.8 kn

From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1021.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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