Tufts University '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.76 (fleet 3.87) | 77 of 331 | −0.04 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 64–48 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 8 | 64–48 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (112 matches) the record is 64–48 against 67.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.26 | 3.39 | 10–9 | 9.5 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-11 | NEISA Women's Team Race Championship - Legler | skipper | 3.04 | 3.52 | 12–7 | 10.2 | +0.48 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2026-03-28 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.08 | 2.05 | 6–10 | 9.4 | −1.04 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2026-03-21 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 2.87 | 11–6 | 11.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2026-03-14 | Women's SNE Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.79 | 7–5 | 7.3 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 3.26 | 6–3 | 5.8 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-01 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.34 | 4–4 | 4.8 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2026-02-28 | McMerrick Team Race Saturday | skipper | 2.90 | 2.09 | 8–4 | 9.1 | −0.81 | 0.6 | 93% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
