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Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2026

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 30 37 67
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 36 74 110
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 50 62 112
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 87 29 116
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 83 37 120
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 66 98 164
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 68 100 168
8 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 71 100 171
9 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 111 72 183
10 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 92 93 185
11 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 93 94 187
12 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 69 129 198
13 Boston College Boston College Eagles 111 104 215
14 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 132 89 221
15 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 121 129 250
16 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 158 123 281
17 Boston University Boston University Terriers 152 160 312
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 5 2 1 6 8 1 3 1 1 30 Zoey Ziskind '27
Christina Chen '27
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 6 2 6 4 2 3 5 4 2 2 36 Laura Hamilton '27
Katherine Majette '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 1 7 13 4 2 2 2 10 6 50 Maddie Janzen '29
Eloise Goedkoop '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 15 7 5 5 1 1 4 15 8 5 66 Karya Basaraner '28
Alice Colby '29
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 5 3 3 7 12 10 7 5 9 7 68 Emma Wang '27
Noelani Li '30
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 7 8 8 14 3 12 9 1 4 3 69 Alders Kulynych-Irvin '29
Sophie Menyhart '27
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 6 11 10 8 9 10 6 3 4 71 Rebecca Schill '27
Maggie Tripp '29
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 9 14 4 3 10 7 8 13 7 8 83 Sidney Moyer '27
Michelle Kaneti '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 10 11 9 2 17 4 3 7 13 11 87 Lucy Meagher '27
Jancy Grayson '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 1 10 16 6 5 5 13 9 11 16 92 Madeline Murphy '29
Sydney Zylinski '29
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 8 4 1 12 14 17 12 10 6 9 93 Julia Scipione '29
Alexandra Daigle '29
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 11 9 10 9 11 6 14 14 17 10 111 Ariana Schwartz '27 [1-4, 9-10]
Emaline Ouellette '28 [5-8]
Savannah Miner '28 [1-4, 9-10]
Olivia Dutra '28 [5-8]
Boston College Boston College Eagles 17 12 13 11 9 11 6 8 12 12 111 Sophie Niemann '30
Madeline Torrey '28
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 13 15 15 8 15 14 11 12 5 13 121 Isabella Cho '27
Kaelyn Holmes '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 12 13 17 16 7 13 15 11 14 14 132 Caroline Odell '27
Grace Boudreau '29
Boston University Boston University Terriers 14 16 12 15 16 16 16 17 15 15 152 Bailey Kreszswick '29
Nola Lai '29
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 16 17 14 17 13 15 17 16 16 17 158 Lucy Murphy '28
Sabina Coroi '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 2 1 5 2 1 4 1 4 6 29 Tavia Smith '27
Maddy Martin '29
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 1 8 2 11 5 3 1 2 2 2 37 Helena Borcherding '30
Gabby Collins '28
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 1 5 9 1 2 8 7 1 1 37 Kate Danielson '28
Jj Drummond '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 3 7 6 7 7 9 9 7 3 62 Sophia Hubbard '28
Fiona Barbeito '30
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 10 4 4 10 9 6 2 8 11 8 72 Minx Anthony '30
Erin Little '28
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 13 10 13 7 4 13 3 4 3 4 74 Leila Pfrang '29
Elena Sun '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 6 13 6 3 11 14 5 10 10 11 89 Ella Demand '28
Olivia Spada '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 11 9 12 4 6 5 12 11 9 14 93 Meara Conley '28
Simone Moss '30
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 12 6 3 8 8 12 10 13 15 7 94 Lilly Saffer '27
Grace Popp '28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 5 11 8 2 17 4 14 14 8 15 98 Sophia Woodbury '28
Ada Kilian '29
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 7 17 16 1 12 8 7 6 13 13 100 Mairéad Reitzel '28
Posie Cabaniss '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 8 5 9 15 14 11 16 5 12 5 100 Kaitlyn Beaver '29
Layla Bursor '29
Boston College Boston College Eagles 9 15 14 13 3 10 13 12 6 9 104 Charlotte Macdonald '30
Brooke Bergendahl '28
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 15 7 10 12 15 16 6 16 16 10 123 Hadley Carscaddon '30
Lane Kaeyer '27
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 14 14 17 16 16 17 15 3 5 12 129 Gabrielle Ahitow '28
Emma Diamantis '29
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 17 12 11 14 10 9 11 15 14 16 129 Grace Patterson '29
Vivian Heitkoetter '27
Boston University Boston University Terriers 16 16 15 17 13 15 17 17 17 17 160 Lydia Carscaddon '30
Piper Lyons '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2026 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1122334455
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2233445566
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears3344556677
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 14455667788
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 25566778899
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1141415151616171711
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 21515161617171122
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels667788991010
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green77889910101111
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson8899101011111212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1991010111112121313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 210101111121213131414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies11111212131314141515
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161717112233
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks12121313141415151616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos13131414151516161717
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts171711223344

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1122334455
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2233445566
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears3344556677
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 14455667788
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 25566778899
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1141415151616171711
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 21515161617171122
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels667788991010
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green77889910101111
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson8899101011111212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1991010111112121313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 210101111121213131414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies11111212131314141515
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161717112233
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks12121313141415151616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos13131414151516161717
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts171711223344
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston College Boston College Sophie Niemann '30 Madeline Torrey '28
Eagles Charlotte Macdonald '30 Brooke Bergendahl '28
Boston University Boston University Bailey Kreszswick '29 Nola Lai '29
Terriers Lydia Carscaddon '30 Piper Lyons '28
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Rebecca Schill '27 Maggie Tripp '29
Polar Bears Mairéad Reitzel '28 Posie Cabaniss '27
Brown University Brown University Laura Hamilton '27 Katherine Majette '27
Bears 1 Leila Pfrang '29 Elena Sun '29
Brown University Brown University Sidney Moyer '27 Michelle Kaneti '29
Bears 2 Helena Borcherding '30 Gabby Collins '28
Connecticut College Connecticut College Julia Scipione '29 Alexandra Daigle '29
Camels Lilly Saffer '27 Grace Popp '28
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Alders Kulynych-Irvin '29 Sophie Menyhart '27
Big Green Grace Patterson '29 Vivian Heitkoetter '27
Harvard University Harvard University Zoey Ziskind '27 Christina Chen '27
Crimson Kate Danielson '28 Jj Drummond '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emma Wang '27 Noelani Li '30
Engineers 1 Kaitlyn Beaver '29 Layla Bursor '29
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Karya Basaraner '28 Alice Colby '29
Engineers 2 Sophia Woodbury '28 Ada Kilian '29
Northeastern University Northeastern University Isabella Cho '27 Kaelyn Holmes '29
Huskies Gabrielle Ahitow '28 Emma Diamantis '29
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Lucy Meagher '27 Jancy Grayson '28
Hawks Tavia Smith '27 Maddy Martin '29
Tufts University Tufts University Maddie Janzen '29 Eloise Goedkoop '27
Jumbos Sophia Hubbard '28 Fiona Barbeito '30
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Madeline Murphy '29 Sydney Zylinski '29
Bears 1 Meara Conley '28 Simone Moss '30
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Caroline Odell '27 Grace Boudreau '29
Bears 2 Ella Demand '28 Olivia Spada '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Ariana Schwartz '27 [1-4, 9-10]
Emaline Ouellette '28 [5-8]		 Savannah Miner '28 [1-4, 9-10]
Olivia Dutra '28 [5-8]
Rams Minx Anthony '30 Erin Little '28
University of Vermont University of Vermont Lucy Murphy '28 Sabina Coroi '27
Catamounts Hadley Carscaddon '30 Lane Kaeyer '27

Conditions — 09/12/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1020.4 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From E (91°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1020.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · SE 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →