University of Vermont '28
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 36.40 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.098 rating points from 92 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | University of Vermont | 0.71 | 38.00 | 35.71 | 14 of 21 | 8 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | University of Vermont | 1.04 | 42.99 | 34.38 | 11 of 16 | 14 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | University of Vermont | 1.54 | 53.63 | 44.12 | 10 of 17 | 49 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 0.90 | 38.49 | 50.00 | 2 of 3 | 12 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.72 (fleet 0.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–5 (72%) as crew 2–8 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 13–5 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | — | 2–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 15–13 against 10.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Brenton Cove Team Race | skipper | 0.99 | 2.47 | 13–5 | 7.9 | +1.48 | 5.3 | 1% |
| 2025-03-29 | Callahan Trophy | crew | 1.01 | 1.38 | 1–5 | 0.7 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 2025-03-15 | Mass Maritime Team Race Invite | crew | 1.25 | 0.37 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −0.88 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.1 | 0.38 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.9 | 0.67 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2026 Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.8 | 0.09 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 0.09 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Eastern National Semis Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 15.8 | 0.59 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 12.6 | 0.71 |
| NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.1 | 0.73 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.7 | 0.18 |
| Brenton Cove Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| 2026 Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (J105) Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Shields Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 7.0 | — |
| NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 8.0 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 16.2 | -0.06 |
| GLIOR J105 Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 4.4 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A | 8 | 13.4 | -0.21 |
| Mass Maritime Team Race Invite | Crew | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 8.5 | +0.11 |
| Callahan Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Urn Trophy/NEISA Women’s Fall Champs Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 13.6 | -0.52 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Crew | A | 9 | 5.7 | -0.22 |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 10.1 | +0.00 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 5.2 | +0.27 |
| Callagy Ross Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 2.7 | +0.20 |
| Barnett Trophy | Crew | A | 7 | 4.6 | -0.04 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lucy Murphy |  Unregistered-NESSA |
'24 |
| ISSA | Lucy Murphy |  Fairfield Ludlowe High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
