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NEISA Match Race Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 3 3
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 6 6
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 9 9
4 Boston College Boston College Eagles 12 12
5 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 15 15
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 18 18
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 21 21
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 24 24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 1 1 3
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 2 2 6
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 3 3 9
Boston College Boston College Eagles 4 4 4 12
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 5 5 15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 6 6 6 18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 7 7 7 21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 8 8 8 24

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  8 boats · 3 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Justin Callahan '26Harvard University3/33.437.00++3.5799th → 99th5.72%1.0 / 3.3
2Guthrie Braun '26Brown University3/33.244.43+1.1999th → 99th1.418%2.0 / 3.5
3Carlos de Castro '26Roger Williams University3/32.823.64+0.8299th → 99th0.927%3.0 / 4.1
4Peter Busch '26Boston College3/32.693.05+0.3699th → 99th0.247%4.0 / 4.3
5Morgan Pinckney '27Yale University3/32.972.38−0.6099th → 99th0.680%5.0 / 3.9
6Tomas Riccio '28U. S. Coast Guard Academy3/32.082.01−0.0799th → 99th0.072%6.0 / 5.1
7Ethan Danielson '26Bowdoin College3/32.111.06−1.0599th → 76th1.892%7.0 / 5.1
8William Denker '27University of Vermont3/30.91——71st → —2.6>99%8.0 / 6.6

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1024.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From E (85°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1024.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →