| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 14–4 |
| 2 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 13–5 |
| 3 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 12–6 |
| 4 |  |
Bentley University | Falcons | 7–11 |
| 5 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 5–13 |
| 6 |  |
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | 3–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 54 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.568 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.38: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of Vermont | 4.17 | 5.59 | 13–5 | 8.0 | +1.42 | 5.0 | 1% |
| 3 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 4.23 | 4.73 | 12–6 | 9.9 | +0.50 | 0.7 | 22% |
| 1 | Salve Regina University | 5.37 | 5.40 | 14–4 | 13.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 4 | Bentley University | 3.89 | 3.66 | 7–11 | 8.0 | −0.24 | 0.2 | 76% |
| 5 | Boston University | 3.99 | 3.10 | 5–13 | 8.4 | −0.89 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 6 | Maine Maritime Academy | 3.50 | 2.60 | 3–15 | 5.8 | −0.91 | 1.7 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Catamounts | Buccaneers | Falcons | Terriers | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 5–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 5–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 3–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 3–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Catamounts | Buccaneers | Falcons | Terriers | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 5–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 4–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 4–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 1–5 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–4 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 2–4 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Catamounts | Buccaneers | Falcons | Terriers | Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 4–2 | ✕ | W | L | L | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 4–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 5–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 3–3 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Maine Maritime Academy Mariners | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Buccaneers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Falcons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 DSQ |
| 24 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Terriers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Catamounts | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Falcons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Falcons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Catamounts | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Terriers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Catamounts | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Falcons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 54 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | Emilia Perriera '28 Jack Schneider '29 Robert Heath '29 Sean Morrison '27 |
Nina Muscarella '27 Spencer Castle '29 Bridget Theisen '29 Lilly Dubovsky '27 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Caitlin Derby '26 Jordynn Johnson '27 Lucy Murphy '28 |
Charlotte Tutt '28 Julia Brighton '27 Lane Kaeyer '27 |
|
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | Colin Shearley '29 Kevin Mcneill '28 Luke Kenahan '27 Zach Earnshaw '27 |
Onyx Lacey '29 Mallory Dietsch '27 Evan Tofolo '28 |
|
Bentley University | Falcons | John O'Connell '28 No Show Wilfred Hynes '26 |
Maren Daly '29 Walker Ryon '29 Alejandro Cestero '28 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Bailey Kreszswick '29 Henry Gesing '29 Sage Andrews '28 |
Zachary Fournier '26 Aadi Sethi '29 Nola Lai '29 |
|
Maine Maritime Academy | Mariners | Alistair Knoblauch '29 Alma Bewsher '29 Vaughn Levinsky '29 |
Simone Ford '29 Taber Allen '27 Israel Mireles '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
