NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy

HostBrown
Date04/04/2026
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	20–1
2	Brown University	Bears	15–6
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	14–7
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–8
5	Boston College	Eagles	8–10
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–10
7	Tufts University	Jumbos	7–11
8	University of Rhode Island	Rams	6–12
9	Yale University	Bulldogs	3–8
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	3–8
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2–9
12	Connecticut College	Camels	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,349 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 82 of 100 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.469 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.01 ± 0.19: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	13.07 school +0.29	Robby Meek / Jacob Posner 4.08 17–1 Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 4.48 11–1 Mitchell Callahan / Christina Chen 4.18 11–1 Justin Callahan / Christina Chen 4.61 6–0 Mitchell Callahan / Rosella Irfan 4.24 6–0 Robby Meek / Aidan Pesce 3.97 3–0 Justin Callahan / Xavier Ayala Vermont 4.40 3–0 Mitchell Callahan / Jacob Posner 4.17 3–0	86%	20–1 (95%)	+1.9
2	Brown University Bears	2	12.16 school +0.27, home +0.34	Guthrie Braun / Vera Allen 4.20 Blake Behrens / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.90 11–5 Cam Spriggs / Phoebe Fogarty 3.41 5–6 James Brock / Phoebe Fogarty 3.59 6–0 Blake Behrens / Noah Stapleton 3.93 4–1 Cam Spriggs / Dominic Ciccimaro 3.31 4–0	70%	15–6 (71%)	+0.3
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	11.50 school +0.42	Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.75 Bella Casaretto / Lilly Baker 3.48 13–7 Chase Decker / Phoebe Lee 3.91 12–5 Chase Decker / Harry Bryan 3.70 2–2 Ben Sheppard / Vivian Heitkoetter 2.71 1–0	56%	14–7 (67%)	+2.2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	12.17 school +0.47	Drew Mastovsky / Carter Sheehan 3.55 12–7 Carlos De Castro / Jed Lory 4.34 8–5 Kyle Pfrang / Jakub Fuja 3.73 8–5 Carlos De Castro / Addyson Fisher 4.31 5–3 Kyle Pfrang / Jed Lory 3.97 5–3 Oliver Stokke / Carter Sheehan 3.45 1–1	70%	13–8 (62%)	−1.6
5	Boston College Eagles	4	11.39 school +0.37	Peter Busch / Christian Yanoti 3.66 2–5 Peter Joslin / Brooke Bergendahl 3.57 4–3 Peter Busch / Alex Lech 3.56 4–3 Tanner Krygsveld / Christian Yanoti 3.71 3–4 Jack Redmond / Ryan Mcgauley 3.73 3–4 Jack Redmond / Caroline Sibilly 3.82 2–3 Tanner Krygsveld / Caroline Sibilly 3.71 1–3 Peter Busch / Damien Bocan 3.47 2–2 Jack Redmond / Lanie Ferrarone 3.80 2–2 Jack Redmond / Christian Yanoti 3.81 1–1	60%	8–10 (44%)	−2.7
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	9.65 school +0.09	Bradley Whiteway / Charles Pohl 3.24 Luke Zylinski / Grace Austin 3.10 Benjamin Reeser / Isabella Clark 3.20	27%	8–10 (44%)	+3.1
7	Tufts University Jumbos	7	10.66 school +0.38	Ben Mueller / Courtland Doyle 3.58 7–6 Pearse Dowd / Kate Castleberry 3.35 7–6 Wyatt Bischoff / Cody Lamoreux 3.30 7–6 Ben Mueller / Kate Castleberry 3.58 0–5 Pearse Dowd / Cody Lamoreux 3.51 0–5 Wyatt Bischoff / Sean Beaver 3.29 0–5	45%	7–11 (39%)	−1.1
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	10	9.57	Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 3.46 4–8 Christopher Chwalk / Parker Brown 2.91 4–7 Christopher Chwalk / Vanessa Reid 2.86 1–5 Owen Grainger / Eric Pohl 3.05 1–5 Tyler Nash / Eric Pohl 3.57 2–4 Keith Grupenhoff / Eric Pohl 3.33 3–3 Keith Grupenhoff / Quin Schneider 3.14 1–4 Christopher Chwalk / Ursula Budd 2.94 1–0 Keith Grupenhoff / Parker Brown 3.19 1–0	26%	6–12 (33%)	+1.3
9	Yale University Bulldogs	6	10.79 school +0.34	Morgan Pinckney / Annabel Woodworth 3.81 Dorothy Mendelblatt / Julia Miller 3.49 3–4 Carly Kieding / Elle Sykes 3.44 3–4 Alex Adams / Elle Sykes 3.09 0–4 Mathias Reimer / Ashley Highland 3.04 0–4	52%	3–8 (27%)	−2.7
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	9.43 school +0.14	Andy Yu / Ryan Hoffman 2.86 3–5 Robert Ulmer / Elliott Chalcraft 3.42 3–5 William Kulas / Adrian Maciuca 2.98 3–5 Andy Yu / Adrian Maciuca 2.78 0–3 Robert Ulmer / Ellie Pinto 3.45 0–3 William Kulas / Elliott Chalcraft 3.09 0–3	27%	3–8 (27%)	−0.0
11	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	12	8.48	Ethan Danielson / Isabelle Tsuchitori 2.83 2–5 Lucca Antonietti / Maizie Bartlett 2.63 2–3 Lucca Antonietti / Hazel Johnson 2.70 0–4 Michelangelo Vecchio / Riley Donahue 3.01 0–3 Michelangelo Vecchio / Kique Ruiz 3.03 1–2 Michelangelo Vecchio / Maizie Bartlett 2.98 0–2 Kyra Phelan / Owen Benison 2.76 0–2 Lucca Antonietti / Riley Donahue 2.67 0–2 Ethan Danielson / Maizie Bartlett 2.68 0–2 Michelangelo Vecchio / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.14 0–1 Ethan Danielson / Charlotte Pare 2.70 0–1 Michelangelo Vecchio / Hazel Johnson 3.06 1–0	13%	2–9 (18%)	+0.5
12	Connecticut College Camels	11	8.89 school +0.25	Skylor Sweet / Madeline Synnestvedt 2.83 Henry Scholz / Vivian Smith 3.02 William Hurd / Tatem Gee 2.75 0–8 William Hurd / Charlotte Mcdonald 2.83 1–2	19%	1–10 (9%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University	13.07	14.30	20–1	18.1	+1.23	1.4	18%
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.65	10.76	8–10	4.9	+1.11	2.6	5%
3	Dartmouth College	11.50	12.13	14–7	11.8	+0.63	1.0	18%
8	University of Rhode Island	9.57	10.06	6–12	4.7	+0.49	0.5	30%
11	Bowdoin College	8.48	8.91	2–9	1.5	+0.42	0.2	45%
2	Brown University	12.16	12.25	15–6	14.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.43	9.42	3–8	3.0	−0.01	0.0	65%
7	Tufts University	10.66	10.31	7–11	8.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
4	Roger Williams University	12.17	11.70	13–8	14.6	−0.47	0.6	88%
5	Boston College	11.39	10.54	8–10	10.7	−0.86	1.7	97%
12	Connecticut College	8.89	7.84	1–10	2.1	−1.05	0.8	93%
9	Yale University	10.79	9.22	3–8	5.7	−1.58	3.0	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
James Brock	Brown University	3.59	6.59	6–0	5.5	≥+3.00	0.8	57%
Robby Meek	Harvard University	4.08	5.32	20–1	18.1	+1.23	1.4	18%
Justin Callahan	Harvard University	4.48	5.71	20–1	18.1	+1.23	1.4	18%
Mitchell Callahan	Harvard University	4.18	5.41	20–1	18.1	+1.23	1.4	18%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.24	4.35	8–10	4.9	+1.11	2.6	5%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.10	4.20	8–10	4.9	+1.11	2.6	5%
Benjamin Reeser	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.20	4.31	8–10	4.9	+1.11	2.6	5%
Ethan Danielson	Bowdoin College	2.83	3.57	2–8	1.2	+0.74	0.5	34%
Keith Grupenhoff	University of Rhode Island	3.33	3.98	5–7	3.7	+0.65	0.6	27%
Michelangelo Vecchio	Bowdoin College	3.01	3.65	2–8	1.3	+0.64	0.3	38%
Ryan Satterberg	Dartmouth College	3.75	4.38	14–7	11.8	+0.63	1.0	18%
Chase Decker	Dartmouth College	3.91	4.54	14–7	11.8	+0.63	1.0	18%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.48	4.09	13–7	10.9	+0.61	0.9	20%
Christopher Chwalk	University of Rhode Island	2.91	3.40	6–12	4.7	+0.49	0.5	30%
Tyler Nash	University of Rhode Island	3.46	3.95	6–12	4.7	+0.49	0.5	30%
Lucca Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.63	3.06	2–9	1.5	+0.42	0.2	45%
Guthrie Braun	Brown University	4.20	4.29	15–6	14.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Blake Behrens	Brown University	3.90	3.99	15–6	14.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Andy Yu	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.86	2.85	3–8	3.0	−0.01	0.0	65%
Robert Ulmer	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.42	3.41	3–8	3.0	−0.01	0.0	65%
William Kulas	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.98	2.96	3–8	3.0	−0.01	0.0	65%
Owen Grainger	University of Rhode Island	3.05	3.03	1–5	1.0	−0.03	0.0	72%
Cam Spriggs	Brown University	3.41	3.34	9–6	9.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Drew Mastovsky	Roger Williams University	3.55	3.32	12–7	12.7	−0.22	0.1	76%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.58	3.23	7–11	8.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
Pearse Dowd	Tufts University	3.35	3.00	7–11	8.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
Wyatt Bischoff	Tufts University	3.30	2.95	7–11	8.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.34	3.87	13–8	14.6	−0.47	0.6	88%
Kyle Pfrang	Roger Williams University	3.73	3.26	13–8	14.6	−0.47	0.6	88%
Peter Joslin	Boston College	3.57	2.91	4–3	4.9	−0.66	0.4	89%
Peter Busch	Boston College	3.66	2.80	8–10	10.7	−0.86	1.7	97%
Jack Redmond	Boston College	3.73	2.87	8–10	10.7	−0.86	1.7	97%
Dorothy Mendelblatt	Yale University	3.49	2.50	3–4	4.1	−0.99	0.8	94%
Carly Kieding	Yale University	3.44	2.44	3–4	4.1	−0.99	0.8	94%
Tanner Krygsveld	Boston College	3.71	2.67	4–7	5.8	−1.04	1.3	96%
William Hurd	Connecticut College	2.75	1.70	1–10	2.1	−1.05	0.8	93%
Skylor Sweet	Connecticut College	2.83	1.79	1–10	2.1	−1.05	0.8	93%
Henry Scholz	Connecticut College	3.02	1.97	1–10	2.1	−1.05	0.8	93%
Morgan Pinckney	Yale University	3.81	2.24	3–8	5.7	−1.58	3.0	99%
Alex Adams	Yale University	3.09	0.09	0–4	1.6	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%
Mathias Reimer	Yale University	3.04	0.04	0–4	1.6	≤−3.00	3.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Yale University	Tufts University	58%
1	2	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	14%	upset
1	4	Brown University	Bowdoin College	97%
1	5	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	6	Harvard University	Connecticut College	99%
1	7	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	69%
1	8	Boston College	Yale University	59%
1	9	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	93%
1	10	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
1	11	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	60%
1	12	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	98%
1	13	Dartmouth College	Boston College	53%
1	14	Brown University	Tufts University	78%
1	15	Roger Williams University	Yale University	77%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	61%
1	17	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	56%
1	18	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	99%
1	19	Brown University	Boston College	66%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
1	21	Tufts University	Connecticut College	85%
1	22	University of Rhode Island	Yale University	35%	upset
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	71%
1	24	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
1	25	Roger Williams University	Brown University	48%	upset
1	26	Boston College	Connecticut College	92%
1	27	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	88%
1	28	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	89%
1	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	34%	upset
1	30	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	97%
1	31	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	96%
1	32	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	33	Boston College	Bowdoin College	95%
1	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	13%	upset
1	35	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	36	Harvard University	Yale University	94%
1	37	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	70%
1	38	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	98%
1	39	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
1	40	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	12%	upset
1	41	Dartmouth College	Yale University	74%
1	42	Harvard University	Tufts University	90%
1	43	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	81%
1	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	68%
1	45	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
1	46	Brown University	Yale University	77%
1	47	Boston College	Tufts University	68%
1	48	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	84%
1	49	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	25%	upset
1	50	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	55%
1	51	Yale University	Connecticut College	90%
1	52	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	81%
1	53	Brown University	Dartmouth College	68%
1	54	Harvard University	Boston College	85%
1	55	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
1	56	Bowdoin College	Yale University	7%	upset
1	57	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	72%
1	58	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	87%
1	59	Roger Williams University	Boston College	63%
1	60	Harvard University	Brown University	71%
1	61	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
1	62	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
1	63	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	95%
1	64	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	65	Brown University	Connecticut College	97%
1	66	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	72%
2	67	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
2	68	Brown University	Tufts University	78%
2	69	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	6%	upset
2	70	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	84%
2	71	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
2	72	Roger Williams University	Boston College	63%
2	73	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	69%
2	74	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	98%
2	75	Brown University	Roger Williams University	51%
2	76	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
2	77	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	83%
2	78	Harvard University	Tufts University	90%
2	79	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
2	80	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	94%
2	81	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	27%	upset
2	82	Harvard University	Boston College	85%
2	83	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	87%
2	84	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	19%	upset
2	85	Boston College	Brown University	34%	upset
2	86	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
2	87	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	28%	upset
2	88	Dartmouth College	Boston College	53%
2	89	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	93%
2	90	Harvard University	Brown University	71%
2	91	Tufts University	Boston College	32%	upset
2	92	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	57%
2	93	Brown University	Dartmouth College	68%
2	94	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	28%	upset
3	95	Dartmouth College	Brown University	32%	upset
3	96	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	72%
3	97	Brown University	Roger Williams University	51%
3	98	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	84%
3	99	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	68%
3	100	Harvard University	Brown University	71%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bears	Green	Hawks	Eagles	Bears	Jumbos	Rams	Bulldogs	Engineers	Bears	Camels
Harvard University Crimson	11–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	9–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	9–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–5	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Connecticut College Camels	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bears	Green	Hawks	Eagles	Bears	Jumbos	Rams
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L
Boston College Eagles	3–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Bears	Green	Hawks
Harvard University Crimson	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	✕	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–2	L	W	✕	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
2	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
3	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
4	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
5	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
7	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
8	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
9	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
10	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
11	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
12	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
13	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
14	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
15	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
16	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
17	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
20	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
21	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
22	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
23	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
24	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
25	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
26	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
27	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
28	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
29	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
30	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
32	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
33	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
34	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
35	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
36	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
37	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
38	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
39	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
40	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
41	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
42	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
43	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
44	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
45	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
46	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
48	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
49	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
50	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
52	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
54	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
55	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
56	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
58	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
59	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
60	Crimson	3-4-6	def.	Bears	1-2-5 DSQ
61	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
62	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
63	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
64	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
66	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
67	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
68	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
69	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
70	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
71	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
72	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
73	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
74	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
75	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
76	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
77	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
78	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
79	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
80	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
81	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
82	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
83	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
84	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
85	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
86	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
87	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
88	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
89	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
90	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
91	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
92	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
93	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
94	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
95	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
96	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
97	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
98	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
99	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
100	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Mitchell Callahan '26 Robby Meek '27	Xavier Ayala Vermont '27 Aidan Pesce '26 Christina Chen '27 Jacob Posner '29 Rosella Irfan '27
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Cam Spriggs '27 Guthrie Braun '26 James Brock '28	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Noah Stapleton '29 Dominic Ciccimaro '29 Phoebe Fogarty '29 Vera Allen '27
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Ben Sheppard '27 Chase Decker '28 Ryan Satterberg '27	Lilly Baker '27 Vivian Heitkoetter '27 Phoebe Lee '26 Harry Bryan '29 Madeline Koelbel '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Drew Mastovsky '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Oliver Stokke '26	Jed Lory '27 Addyson Fisher '27 Carter Sheehan '27 Jakub Fuja '27
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Redmond '26 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26 Tanner Krygsveld '29	Ryan Mcgauley '27 Caroline Sibilly '26 Christian Yanoti '29 Lanie Ferrarone '28 Alex Lech '28 Damien Bocan '27 Brooke Bergendahl '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Benjamin Reeser '28 Bradley Whiteway '26 Luke Zylinski '26	Isabella Clark '29 Charles Pohl '26 Grace Austin '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Pearse Dowd '29 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Kate Castleberry '28 Courtland Doyle '27 Cody Lamoreux '27 Sean Beaver '27
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Christopher Chwalk '28 Keith Grupenhoff '29 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26	Parker Brown '26 Ursula Budd '27 Vanessa Reid '26 Eric Pohl '28 Quin Schneider '29
Yale University	Bulldogs	Alex Adams '26 Carly Kieding '29 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Mathias Reimer '27 Morgan Pinckney '27	Elle Sykes '27 Julia Miller '26 Ashley Highland '27 Annabel Woodworth '28
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Andy Yu '27 Robert Ulmer '27 William Kulas '28	Adrian Maciuca '29 Ryan Hoffman '28 Ellie Pinto '27 Elliott Chalcraft '27
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Ethan Danielson '26 Kyra Phelan '26 Lucca Antonietti '29 Michelangelo Vecchio '27	Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Maizie Bartlett '27 Charlotte Pare '28 Owen Benison '29 Hazel Johnson '27 Riley Donahue '28 Kique Ruiz '26
Connecticut College	Camels	Henry Scholz '27 Skylor Sweet '26 William Hurd '27	Vivian Smith '27 Madeline Synnestvedt '27 Tatem Gee '27 Charlotte Mcdonald '29

Conditions — 04/04/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1025.4 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.4 kn

avg · max 10.6 kn

Gusts to 26.2 kn

From NE (49°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1025.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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