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Seneca Showdown

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 13 13
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 38 38
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 43 43
4 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 43 43
5 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 44 44
6 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 44 44
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 45 45
8 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 46 46
9 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 48 48
10 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 50 50
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 51 51
12 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 58 58
13 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9 61 61
14 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 69 69
15 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 71 71
16 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 92 92
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 3 1 1 5 2 1 13 Gilda Dondona '28
Sophia Fogarty '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 7 4 6 13 3 5 38 Finn Palermo '28
Bennett O'Keefe '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 2 13 11 3 4 10 43 Dante Garcia '28
Ella Donaldson '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 10 2 8 1 10 12 43 Pilar Cundey '27
Kate Constan '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 10 3 12 14 4 44 Boris Bialer '26
Ava Stevens '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 5 8 2 2 13 14 44 Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26
Lucy Lack '28
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 6 14 7 9 7 2 45 Maya Conway '26
Hope Campbell '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 13 3 4 4 11 11 46 Brook Wood '25
Juliana Victor '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 11 7 9 11 1 9 48 Ava Gustafson '28
Kathleen Keller '28
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 8 6 14 10 6 6 50 Marcus Greco '28
Theodore Taylor '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 4 5 5 15 9 13 51 Sam Carson '28
Colin Byrne '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 9 11 10 7 5 16 58 Simona Esposito '28
Maya Mahoney '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9 12 9 13 8 12 7 61 Simon Hammarlund '28
Stella Kim '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 14 15 16 6 15 3 69 Tucker Rose '28
Reilly Roedel '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 15 12 12 16 8 8 71 Sara Ortiz Vey '28
Wynne Williams '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 16 16 15 14 16 15 92 Jack Carter '27
Piper Torrey '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 1111113
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 2333331
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 3555557
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 4777775
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 59999911
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 611111111119
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 713131313132
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 12222213
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2444446
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3666664
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 48888810
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 510101010108
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6121212121214
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7141414141412
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8151515151516
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9161616161615

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From NW (322°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1024.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →