Hobart and William Smith Colleges '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.08 (fleet 1.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–6 (40%) as crew 3–1 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 4–6 | 3–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 7–7 against 6.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.07 | 0.96 | 4–6 | 4.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2025-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 1.07 | 1.43 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Cayuga Clash | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 0.99 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Seneca Showdown | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.5 | 1.36 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Tucker Rose |  Greenwich Country Day School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
