| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 13–1 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 12–2 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 10–4 |
| 4 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 7–7 |
| 5 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 6–8 |
| 6 |  |
Clemson University | Tigers | 5–9 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 2–12 |
| 8 |  |
Columbia University | Lions | 1–13 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 26,169 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 47 of 56 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.347 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.15 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 28% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 5.07 | 6.93 | 10–4 | 7.0 | +1.86 | 3.8 | 3% |
| 7 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 1.12 | 2.82 | 2–12 | 0.5 | +1.70 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 4 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 4.80 | 4.87 | 7–7 | 6.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 7.80 | 7.61 | 12–2 | 12.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 8.89 | 8.44 | 13–1 | 13.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 86% |
| 5 | SUNY Maritime College | 4.51 | 4.06 | 6–8 | 6.8 | −0.45 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 6 | Clemson University | 4.51 | 3.66 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.86 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 8 | Columbia University | 2.69 | 0.76 | 1–13 | 2.7 | −1.93 | 2.1 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Mccarvill | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 0.20 | 1.90 | 2–12 | 0.5 | +1.70 | 2.1 | 9% |
| Griffin Jones | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 0.30 | 2.00 | 2–12 | 0.5 | +1.70 | 2.1 | 9% |
| Meara Conley | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 1.47 | 2.93 | 9–3 | 6.9 | +1.46 | 2.1 | 10% |
| Joseph Marynowski | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.17 | 1.99 | 12–2 | 12.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Mats Braaten | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.26 | 2.07 | 12–2 | 12.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Nathan Jensen | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.92 | 2.73 | 12–2 | 12.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Luke Barker | SUNY Maritime College | 1.31 | 0.86 | 6–8 | 6.8 | −0.45 | 0.3 | 84% |
| William Avery | Clemson University | 0.94 | 0.09 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.86 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Alexander Vincenti | Columbia University | 0.12 | -1.81 | 1–13 | 2.7 | −1.93 | 2.1 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Seahawks | Bears | Statesmen | Privateers | Tigers | Mariners | Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 6–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 7–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 4–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Clemson University Tigers | 3–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Columbia University Lions | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Seahawks | Bears | Statesmen | Privateers | Tigers | Mariners | Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 6–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 3–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Clemson University Tigers | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Columbia University Lions | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Privateers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 20 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Privateers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Privateers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 52 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Tigers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
