U. S. Naval Academy '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.98 (fleet 4.14) | 43 of 331 | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–20 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 18–9 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 29–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 47–20 against 48.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Thompson Trophy | skipper | 3.64 | 3.47 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.17 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2026-03-21 | Seahawk Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 6.54 | 12–0 | 11.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 2025-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.07 | 2.62 | 13–1 | 13.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 86% |
| 2025-03-08 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 2.87 | 7–7 | 7.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2025-03-01 | Navy Team Race Invitiational | skipper | 3.11 | 2.17 | 9–3 | 10.5 | −0.95 | 1.1 | 96% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Kyle Reinecke |  Severn School |
'23 |
| ISSA | Kyle Reinecke |  Portsmouth Abbey School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
