| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 9–3 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | 6–6 |
| 4 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | 6–6 |
| 5 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 30 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.562 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.30 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 19% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 6.47 | 7.52 | 6–6 | 3.7 | +1.06 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2 | Georgetown University Hoyas | 7.70 | 8.06 | 8–4 | 7.3 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 4 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 7.47 | 7.17 | 6–6 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 5 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 5.65 | 4.95 | 1–11 | 1.8 | −0.70 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 9.04 | 8.10 | 9–3 | 10.5 | −0.95 | 1.1 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Braaten | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.94 | 2.99 | 6–6 | 3.7 | +1.06 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.10 | 3.16 | 6–6 | 3.7 | +1.06 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Joseph Marynowski | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.91 | 2.96 | 6–6 | 3.7 | +1.06 | 1.8 | 10% |
| Nathan Jensen | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.78 | 2.47 | 6–6 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Max Kleha | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.14 | 1.83 | 6–6 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 1.93 | 1.23 | 1–11 | 1.8 | −0.70 | 0.4 | 87% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Hoyas | 2 | 1 | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–1 | W | ✕ | L | L | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 3–5 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 3–5 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–3 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Hoyas | 2 | 1 | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 1–3 | L | ✕ | L | L | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 5–3 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 5–3 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Hoyas | 2 | 1 | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–2 | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 4–4 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 4–4 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 17 | |
Seahawks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahawks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Hugh Carty '27 Kyle Reinecke '28 Umi Noritake '28 |
Molly Jethwa '28 Isabella Fadullon '25 Eva Ottenbreit '27 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Benjamin Smith '26 Jack Duffy '27 Peter Barnard '27 |
Ellie Smith '28 Meredith Kean '26 Teddy Stoldt '28 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 2 | Cho-Cho Williams '26 Joseph Marynowski '28 Mats Braaten '27 |
Indiana Theurer '25 Walker Brescia '28 Lillian Newman '25 Mary Govan '27 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks 1 | Henry Haddon '25 Max Kleha '25 Nathan Jensen '27 |
Scott Opert '28 Gina Bonazelli '26 Grace Phillips '27 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 Owen Harrod '26 Simon Hammarlund '28 |
Sam Carson '28 Jack Carter '27 Dante Garcia '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
