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Chesapeake Open

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 161
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 169
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 212
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 235
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 300
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 304
7 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 305
8 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 308
9 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 400
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 A 7 3 12 11 3 2 1 8 6 1 2 2 2 5 65 Peter Barnard '27
Anna Brzezinski '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 B 1 9 2 4 9 5 13 9 8 2 5 3 3 2 75 Hugh Carty '27 [1-8]
Owen Macwilliams '28 [9-14]
Eleanor Niehoff '26 [1-8]
Ryan Wahba '25 [9-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 A 5 6 5 8 5 7 3 7 5 9 4 10 1 3 78 Kelly Bates '26
Margot Gordon '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 A 2 7 13 5 4 4 7 2 11 8 7 6 7 11 94 Tanner Kelly '25
Fiona Cullen '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 B 10 4 14 7 6 15 2 4 7 4 1 4 5 13 96 Emily Doble '28
Lucy Jervis '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 A 3 8 8 6 1 6 10 5 2 12 13 5 17 4 100 Umi Noritake '28 [1-8]
Teddy Martin '27 [9-14]
Eva Ottenbreit '27 [1-8]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 B 8 18 4 13 16 14 6 3 10 3 11 1 4 1 112 Sean Trudell '28 [1-8]
Kyle Reinecke '28 [9-14]
Alexander Brenia '26 [1-8]
Josephine Sherry '27 [9-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 4 2 15 3 12 13 4 1 3 15 9 8 10 14 113 Nathan Jensen '27
Brooke Bertrand '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 B 14 10 3 2 13 11 16 14 9 5 6 11 11 15 140 Ava Farley '26 [1-8]
Robert Ziman '25 [9-14]
Gregory Lesmerises Degraff '28 [1-8]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 A 16 5 16 18 2 3 17 16 4 6 8 7 16 7 141 Mats Braaten '27
Mary Govan '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 9 16 7 12 8 8 8 11 14 13 12 13 8 12 151 Cho-Cho Williams '26
Rachel O'Neill '24
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 B 11 14 11 17 11 10 11 12 13 7 10 9 15 6 157 Xavier Stoldt '26 [1-14]
Vaughn Slatoff '26 [1-8]
Meredith Monnich '27 [9-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 12 11 6 14 14 9 14 6 16 16 3 14 12 10 157 Scott Opert '28 [1-8]
Raam Fox '26 [9-14]
Grace Phillips '27 [1-4]
Brooke Hayward '27 [5-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 B 18 12 17 9 10 1 9 10 15 14 14 15 6 9 159 Max Kleha '25 [1-14]
Indiana Theurer '25 [1-4]
Gina Bonazelli '26 [5-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 A 15 15 18 1 15 12 15 13 1 10 17 12 13 8 165 Logan Hayes '27 [1-8]
Spencer Dominguez '27 [9-14]
Molly Jethwa '28 [1-8]
Sarah Mcnelly '28 [9-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 13 1 1 16 18 16 12 18 12 17 15 18 18 16 191 Joseph Marynowski '28
Lillian Newman '25
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 A 6 17 9 15 7 18 18 15 18 18 16 16 9 17 199 Jack Duffy '27 [1-8]
Luke Monnich '25 [9-14]
Helen O’Neill '27 [1-8]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 B 17 13 10 10 17 17 5 17 17 11 18 17 14 18 201 Brady Read '28 [1-14]
Teddy Stoldt '28 [1-8]
Poshu Ng '27 [9-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 111111111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 222222222222222
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 333333333333333
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 177777777777777
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 288888888888888
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 399999999999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 144444444444444
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 255555555555555
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 366666666666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 11010101010101010101010101010
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 21111111111111111111111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 31212121212121212121212121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11616161616161616161616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 21717171717171717171717171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 31818181818181818181818181818
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11313131313131313131313131313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21414141414141414141414141414
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 31515151515151515151515151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Georgetown University Georgetown University Peter Barnard '27 Anna Brzezinski '27
Hoyas 1 Emily Doble '28 Lucy Jervis '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Kelly Bates '26 Margot Gordon '26
Hoyas 2 Xavier Stoldt '26 [1-14] Vaughn Slatoff '26 [1-8]
Meredith Monnich '27 [9-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Jack Duffy '27 [1-8]
Luke Monnich '25 [9-14]		 Helen O’Neill '27 [1-8]
Hoyas 3 Brady Read '28 [1-14] Teddy Stoldt '28 [1-8]
Poshu Ng '27 [9-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Nathan Jensen '27 Brooke Bertrand '25
Seahawks 1 Joseph Marynowski '28 Lillian Newman '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Cho-Cho Williams '26 Rachel O'Neill '24
Seahawks 2 Scott Opert '28 [1-8]
Raam Fox '26 [9-14]		 Grace Phillips '27 [1-4]
Brooke Hayward '27 [5-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Mats Braaten '27 Mary Govan '27
Seahawks 3 Max Kleha '25 [1-14] Indiana Theurer '25 [1-4]
Gina Bonazelli '26 [5-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Tanner Kelly '25 Fiona Cullen '27
Midshipmen 1 Hugh Carty '27 [1-8]
Owen Macwilliams '28 [9-14]		 Eleanor Niehoff '26 [1-8]
Ryan Wahba '25 [9-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Umi Noritake '28 [1-8]
Teddy Martin '27 [9-14]		 Eva Ottenbreit '27 [1-8]
Midshipmen 2 Sean Trudell '28 [1-8]
Kyle Reinecke '28 [9-14]		 Alexander Brenia '26 [1-8]
Josephine Sherry '27 [9-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Logan Hayes '27 [1-8]
Spencer Dominguez '27 [9-14]		 Molly Jethwa '28 [1-8]
Sarah Mcnelly '28 [9-14]
Midshipmen 3 Ava Farley '26 [1-8]
Robert Ziman '25 [9-14]		 Gregory Lesmerises Degraff '28 [1-8]

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From NE (52°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1023.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn · NE 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Navy: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →