Hobart and William Smith Colleges '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–7 (42%) as crew 2–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 5–7 | 2–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 5–7 against 5.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.89 | 1.76 | 5–7 | 5.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Seneca Showdown | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.9 | 3.80 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | -0.41 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.8 | 3.03 |
| Cayuga Clash | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 3.31 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 2.07 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 1.77 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.6 | 2.55 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | 2.41 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | C | 14 | 9.4 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Guinness |  St. John's College High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
