| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 13 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.296 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.07 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 50% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2 | 10.09 school +0.35 | Charlie Anderson / Jane Wright 3.02 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.68 Landon Cormie / Raam Fox 4–0 Landon Cormie / Emily Shioutakon 2–1 | 65% | 6–1 (86%) | +1.5 |
| 2 | Georgetown University Hoyas | 1 | 11.13 school +0.30, home +0.40 | Enzo Menditto / Spencer Kriegstein 3.48 Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston 3.48 Diego Escobar / Margot Gordon 3.45 | 88% | 5–2 (71%) | −1.2 |
| 3 | Fordham University Rams | 3 | 7.80 school +0.08 | Jacob Zils / Andalucia Pilcher 2.74 Lucas Thress / Caroline Newton 2.56 Patrick Shachoy / Rebecca Keller | 30% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Cornell University Big Red | 4 | 6.50 school −0.12 | Ava Gustafson / Sophia Fogarty Gilda Dondona / Kate Moran Marcus Greco / Boris Bialer | 8% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10.09 | 11.95 | 6–1 | 4.5 | +1.86 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 3 | Fordham University | 7.80 | 8.14 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.34 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2 | Georgetown University | 11.13 | 9.77 | 5–2 | 6.2 | −1.36 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 4 | Cornell University | 6.50 | 3.50 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.02 | 4.88 | 6–1 | 4.5 | +1.86 | 2.0 | 12% |
| Landon Cormie | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.99 | 4.84 | 6–1 | 4.5 | +1.86 | 2.0 | 12% |
| Lucas Thress | Fordham University | 2.56 | 2.90 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.34 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Ava Gustafson | Cornell University | 2.18 | -0.82 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Gilda Dondona | Cornell University | 2.42 | -0.58 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Hoyas | Rams | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Hoyas | Rams | Red | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 2–2 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Charlie Anderson '25 Landon Cormie '27 Owen Hennessey '25 |
Jane Wright '28 Raam Fox '26 Emily Shioutakon '26 Zoe Hoctor '25 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Diego Escobar '25 Enzo Menditto '26 Mateo Di Blasi '25 |
Margot Gordon '26 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Caro Gaston '25 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Jacob Zils '27 Lucas Thress '26 Patrick Shachoy '28 |
Andalucia Pilcher '28 Caroline Newton '27 Rebecca Keller '25 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Ava Gustafson '28 Gilda Dondona '28 Marcus Greco '28 |
Sophia Fogarty '25 Kate Moran '27 Boris Bialer '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
