St. Mary's College of MD Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/08/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	16–3
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–6
3	Boston College	Eagles	0–0
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–7
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–12
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	7–12
7	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–12
8	Cornell University	Big Red	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,440 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 71 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.498 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	11.65 school +0.32	Kyle Pfrang / Jed Lory 3.72 14–3 Mathieu Dale / Addyson Fisher 3.39 10–1 Carlos De Castro / Claire Buckley 4.17 10–1 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 4.26 6–2 Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley 3.40 4–2 Oliver Stokke / Addyson Fisher 3.32 2–0 Kyle Pfrang / Claire Buckley 3.82 2–0	70%	16–3 (84%)	+2.7
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.81 school +0.27	Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 4.01 Morgan Pinckney / Annabel Woodworth 3.49 Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 3.99 8–2 Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 4.00 5–4	74%	13–6 (68%)	−1.0
3	Boston College Eagles	6	10.62 school +0.20	Peter Busch / Brendan Peary 3.42 Michael Kirkman / Matt Budington 3.40 8–2 Jack Redmond / Nick Budington 3.52 8–2 Michael Kirkman / Lanie Ferrarone 3.35 5–4 Jack Redmond / Sara Schumann 3.51 2–4 Jack Redmond / Matt Budington 3.46 3–0	46%	13–6 (68%)	+4.2
4	Stanford University Cardinal	3	11.22 school +0.32	Dylan Sih / Shay Wood 3.33 Reade Decker / Piper Blackband 3.61 Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 3.94	60%	12–7 (63%)	+0.6
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.99 school +0.28	Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.87 5–11 Jack Welburn / Spencer Dominguez 3.25 3–11 Henry Allgeier / Ellie Alex 3.56 4–6 Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.40 3–6 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.43 4–1 Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 3.76 2–1	55%	7–12 (37%)	−3.4
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	10.97 school +0.41, home +0.37	Landon Cormie / Raam Fox 3.19 5–8 Charlie Anderson / Zoe Hoctor 3.32 5–5 Owen Hennessey / Brooke Bertrand 3.70 5–5 Charlie Anderson / Jane Wright 3.19 2–4 Owen Hennessey / Zoe Hoctor 3.75 2–4 Landon Cormie / Emily Shioutakon 3.02 1–2 Landon Cormie / Henry Haddon 3.08 1–2 Charlie Anderson / Emily Shioutakon 3.26 0–3 Owen Hennessey / Henry Haddon 3.74 0–3	55%	7–12 (37%)	−3.4
7	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	8.16 school +0.31	Blake Goodwin / Emil Body-Goldberg 2.52 Pierce Brindley / Cadence Goodnight 2.60 Diogo Silva / Ian Kissel 2.71 1–7 Diogo Silva / Molly Hanson 2.69 1–5	16%	2–12 (14%)	−0.2
8	Cornell University Big Red	8	6.69 school −0.13	Marcus Greco / Sophia Pearce 2.10 1–11 Ava Gustafson / Ava Stevens 2.26 0–10 Boris Bialer / Wynne Williams 1–9 Gilda Dondona / Hope Campbell 2.51 1–9	4%	1–13 (7%)	+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Boston College	10.62	11.78	13–6	8.8	+1.16	3.6	2%
1	Roger Williams University	11.65	12.58	16–3	13.3	+0.93	1.7	11%
8	Cornell University	6.69	7.52	1–13	0.5	+0.82	0.3	43%
4	Stanford University	11.22	11.39	12–7	11.4	+0.17	0.1	48%
7	Old Dominion University	8.16	7.93	2–12	2.2	−0.23	0.0	80%
2	Yale University	11.81	11.51	13–6	14.0	−0.30	0.2	81%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	10.99	9.97	7–12	10.4	−1.02	2.4	98%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.97	9.92	7–12	10.4	−1.05	2.5	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	2.51	3.46	1–9	0.5	+0.94	0.4	41%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.17	5.10	16–3	13.3	+0.93	1.7	11%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.71	2.47	2–12	2.2	−0.23	0.0	80%
Charlie Anderson	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.32	2.27	7–12	10.4	−1.05	2.5	98%
Landon Cormie	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.19	2.14	7–12	10.4	−1.05	2.5	98%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.26	-0.74	0–10	0.1	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
1	3	Stanford University	Cornell University	99%
1	4	Boston College	Yale University	22%	upset
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	94%
1	6	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	99%
1	7	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
1	8	Stanford University	Boston College	66%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	99%
1	10	Yale University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	11	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	60%
1	12	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	38%	upset
1	13	Yale University	Cornell University	99%
1	14	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	95%
1	16	Roger Williams University	Boston College	75%
1	17	Yale University	Stanford University	64%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	99%
1	19	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	70%
1	20	Boston College	Old Dominion University	92%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	45%	upset
1	22	Roger Williams University	Yale University	45%	upset
1	23	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	19%	upset
1	24	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
1	25	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	26	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	27	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
1	28	Boston College	Cornell University	98%
2	29	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	97%
2	30	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
2	31	Stanford University	Cornell University	99%
2	32	Yale University	Boston College	77%
2	33	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	5%	upset
2	34	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	99%
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	28%	upset
2	36	Boston College	Stanford University	35%	upset
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	99%
2	38	Yale University	Old Dominion University	97%
2	39	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	60%
2	40	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	38%	upset
2	41	Yale University	Cornell University	99%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	46%	upset
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	95%
2	44	Boston College	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
2	45	Stanford University	Yale University	35%	upset
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	99%
2	47	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
2	48	Boston College	Old Dominion University	92%
2	49	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
2	50	Yale University	Roger Williams University	55%
2	51	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	81%
2	52	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
2	53	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
2	54	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	95%
2	55	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
2	56	Boston College	Cornell University	98%
6	57	Yale University	Boston College	77%
6	58	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
6	59	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
6	60	Roger Williams University	Yale University	45%	upset
6	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	56%
6	62	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
6	63	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
6	64	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	60%
6	65	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	38%	upset
6	66	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
6	67	Stanford University	Boston College	64%
6	68	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
6	69	Boston College	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
6	70	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
6	71	Stanford University	Yale University	35%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Monarchs	Red
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Cornell University Big Red	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Monarchs	Red
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Seahawks
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–3	W	L	✕	L	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
2	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
4	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
5	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
6	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
7	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
8	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
11	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
12	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
13	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
16	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
18	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
19	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
20	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
22	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
23	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
24	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
25	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
27	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
28	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
29	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
30	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
33	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
34	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
35	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
37	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
39	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
42	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
44	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
45	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
46	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
48	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
49	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
50	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
51	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
52	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
53	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
54	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
55	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
56	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
58	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
60	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
61	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
62	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
63	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
64	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
65	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
66	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
67	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
68	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
69	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
71	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Mathieu Dale '25 Oliver Stokke '26	Carly Kiss '25 Claire Buckley '25 Jed Lory '27 Addyson Fisher '27
Yale University	Bulldogs	Jack Egan '25 Morgan Pinckney '27 Stephan Baker '26	Nathan Sih '25 Elle Sykes '27 Annabel Woodworth '28 Ashley Highland '27
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Redmond '26 Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26	Nick Budington '25 Matt Budington '25 Sara Schumann '25 Lanie Ferrarone '28 Brendan Peary '27
Stanford University	Cardinal	Dylan Sih '28 Reade Decker '27 Thomas Sitzmann '27	Shay Wood '27 Piper Blackband '28 Alice Schmid '27
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Ellie Alex '26 Fiona Cullen '27 Spencer Dominguez '27 Darby Graham '26 Ryan Wahba '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Charlie Anderson '25 Landon Cormie '27 Owen Hennessey '25	Zoe Hoctor '25 Emily Shioutakon '26 Jane Wright '28 Raam Fox '26 Henry Haddon '25 Brooke Bertrand '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28	Emil Body-Goldberg '27 Molly Hanson '27 Ian Kissel '27 Cadence Goodnight '26
Cornell University	Big Red	Ava Gustafson '28 Boris Bialer '26 Gilda Dondona '28 Marcus Greco '28	Ava Stevens '28 Wynne Williams '27 Hope Campbell '28 Sophia Pearce '26

Conditions — 03/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1008.4 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.5 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 30.1 kn

From NW (320°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1008.4 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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