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USF Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 12–0
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 9–2
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6–5
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 6–5
5 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 5–6
6 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2–10
7 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,101 team race matches sailed before 2025-02-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 42 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.247 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.31: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1College of Charleston
Cougars		18.79
school +0.34		Fredrikke Foss / Andrea Melnik 2.72
Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 3.11 10–0
Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.58 8–0
Emma Tallman / Marina Dryer 3.08 2–0
Emily Alfortish / Paige Lubrano 2.45 2–0
Bella Shakespeare / Marina Dryer 2–0		91%12–0 (100%)+1.0
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		27.56
school +0.12		Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.30
Brooke Schmelz / Elliott Chalcraft 2.98
Karya Basaraner / Shayne Bersin		74%9–3 (75%)+0.1
3University of South Florida
Bulls		46.16
school +0.07, home +0.40		Kailey Warrior / Madisen Hamai 2.25
Sara Menesale / Heidi Hicks
Ghislaine Van Empel / Catherine Brennan 3–3
Grace Jones / Macy Parke 4–2		49%7–5 (58%)+1.1
4Jacksonville University
Fins		36.94Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.77
Kaitlyn Liebel / Payton Ruth 2.15
Fiona Froelich / Kayla Putzke 2.02		63%6–6 (50%)−1.6
5University of Hawaii
Rainbows		55.83
school −0.22		Sophia Shaeffer / Avery Hogue
Vivian Bonsager / Stella Taherian 2.48
Martha Schuessler / Morgan Carew 2.22 4–6
Martha Schuessler / Elin Reigstad 2.15 2–0		43%6–6 (50%)+0.8
6Rollins College
Tars		64.92
school +0.16		Shay Bridge / Maggie Burnham
Ka Hamner / Jane Mckenzie 1.42
Julia Scott / Zi Burns 1.51		29%2–10 (17%)−1.5
7Florida State University
Seminoles		70.00
school +0.06		Tia Schoening / Kristen Cooper 0.88
Olivia Hoover / Sophia Gallo
Olivia Figley / Carly Sweeney		0%0–12 (0%)−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1College of Charleston8.7911.7912–011.0≥+3.001.532%
3University of South Florida6.166.787–55.9+0.630.532%
5University of Hawaii5.836.326–65.1+0.490.338%
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology7.567.609–38.9+0.040.066%
4Jacksonville University6.946.056–67.6−0.891.094%
6Rollins College4.922.442–103.4−2.481.9>99%
7Florida State University0.00-3.000–120.0≤−3.000.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Fredrikke FossCollege of Charleston2.725.7212–011.0≥+3.001.532%
Ghislaine Van EmpelUniversity of South Florida1.782.693–32.0+0.910.731%
Brooke BarryMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.302.349–38.9+0.040.066%
Ka HamnerRollins College1.42-1.062–103.4−2.481.9>99%
Julia ScottRollins College1.51-0.972–103.4−2.481.9>99%
Olivia FigleyFlorida State University-0.88-3.880–120.0≤−3.000.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University63%
12Rollins CollegeFlorida State University99%
13College of CharlestonUniversity of Hawaii95%
14University of South FloridaJacksonville University32%upset
15Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyFlorida State University100%
16College of CharlestonRollins College98%
17University of HawaiiUniversity of South Florida40%upset
18Jacksonville UniversityFlorida State University100%
19College of CharlestonMassachusetts Institute of Technology77%
110University of HawaiiRollins College72%
111University of South FloridaFlorida State University100%
112College of CharlestonJacksonville University86%
113Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii85%
114University of South FloridaRollins College76%
115College of CharlestonFlorida State University100%
116Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Hawaii75%
117Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRollins College93%
118College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida93%
119University of HawaiiFlorida State University100%
120Jacksonville UniversityRollins College88%
121Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of South Florida82%
222Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Hawaii75%
223Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyFlorida State University100%
224College of CharlestonRollins College98%
225University of South FloridaUniversity of Hawaii59%
226Jacksonville UniversityFlorida State University100%
227College of CharlestonMassachusetts Institute of Technology77%
228University of South FloridaRollins College76%
229University of HawaiiFlorida State University100%
230College of CharlestonJacksonville University86%
231Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRollins College93%
232University of South FloridaFlorida State University100%
233College of CharlestonUniversity of Hawaii94%
234Jacksonville UniversityRollins College88%
235Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of South Florida81%
236College of CharlestonFlorida State University100%
237University of HawaiiRollins College71%
238Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyJacksonville University66%
239College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida92%
240Rollins CollegeFlorida State University99%
241University of HawaiiMassachusetts Institute of Technology15%upset
242University of South FloridaJacksonville University34%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.CougarsEngineersBullsFinsRainbowsTarsSeminoles
College of Charleston Cougars6–0✕WWWWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5–1L✕WWWWW
University of South Florida Bulls3–3LL✕WLWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–3LLL✕WWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows3–3LLWL✕WW
Rollins College Tars1–5LLLLL✕W
Florida State University Seminoles0–6LLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CougarsEngineersBullsFinsRainbowsTarsSeminoles
College of Charleston Cougars6–0✕WWWWWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–2L✕WWLWW
University of South Florida Bulls4–2LL✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–3LLL✕WWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows3–3LWLL✕WW
Rollins College Tars1–5LLLLL✕W
Florida State University Seminoles0–6LLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
2 Rollins College Tars 1-2-4 def. Florida State University Seminoles 3-5-6 DNS
3 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
4 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
6 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
7 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
8 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. Florida State University Seminoles 3-5-6
9 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
10 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-5
11 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
12 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
14 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-5 def. Rollins College Tars 1-4-6
15 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
16 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Rollins College Tars 2-4-6
18 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
19 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-4 def. Florida State University Seminoles 2-5-6
20 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Rollins College Tars 1-5-6
21 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
22 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
23 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Florida State University Seminoles 3-5-6
24 College of Charleston Cougars 1-3-6 def. Rollins College Tars 2-4-5
25 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-5
26 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
27 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
28 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-4 def. Rollins College Tars 2-5-6
29 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
30 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
31 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
32 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
33 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
34 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
35 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
36 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
37 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. Rollins College Tars 1-5-6
38 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
39 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
40 Rollins College Tars 1-2-3 def. Florida State University Seminoles 4-5-6
41 University of Hawaii Rainbows def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers
42 University of South Florida Bulls def. Jacksonville University Fins

Conditions — 02/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From ENE (57°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1026.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →