University of Hawaii '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.29 (fleet 1.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–6 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 10–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 10–6 against 7.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.61 | 3.83 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +2.22 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 2026-02-21 | USF Women's TR - Ashley Reynolds Reali Memorial | skipper | 1.40 | 2.15 | 7–5 | 5.2 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's TR - Ashley Reynolds Reali Memorial Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| USF Women's Promotional Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.8 | 2.26 |
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| U Hawaii Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | -1.61 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.51 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 1.51 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 2 | 22.0 | -1.21 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Elizabeth Fourney |  University of California at Santa Barbara |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
