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PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 6–0
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 5–1
3 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 5–2
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4–2
5 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2–4
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1–5
7 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 1–5
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1–6

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,694 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 25 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.266 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.22 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 68% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.27
school +0.48		Ellie Harned / Caroline Geiger 3.47
Sophie Fisher / Alexandra Jones 3.69 5–0
Kit Harned / Piper Blackband 2.65 3–0
Piper Blackband / Kit Harned 3.12 3–0
Alexandra Jones / Sophie Fisher 1–0		100%6–0 (100%)+0.0
2University of Hawaii
Rainbows		35.86
school −0.13		Stella Taherian / Elin Reigstad 2.25 4–1
Martha Schuessler / Amanda Turner 2.36 3–1
Kahlia Bailey / Ann Tokoyoda 4–0
Elizabeth Fourney / Peyton Lieser 1.61 3–1
Martha Schuessler / Peyton Lieser 2.33 1–0		73%5–1 (83%)+0.6
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		44.00Marina Priskich / Kieran Mcewen 1.84
Mila Kane / Maya Peña
Brynn Jolly / Siha Top		53%5–2 (71%)+1.3
4University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		25.15
school −0.22		Hailey Thompson / Renee Lehto
Evelyn Engebretson / Annesley Krawitt
Emery Sularz / Lana Coomes		82%4–2 (67%)−1.0
5University of Washington
Huskies		62.85
school −0.09		Sammy Farkas / Tillie Jane Leroy 1.70
Stephanie Seto / Gloria Jorczak 1.17
Allegra Mcalpin / Ayana Owen 0.04		27%2–4 (33%)+0.4
6Western Washington University
Vikings		81.47
school −0.52		Luca Campbell / Cora Gunderson 1.09
Addison Dunn / Erica Stavnem 0.55
Sofia Brown Patricio / Natalie Berg 0.33		12%1–5 (17%)+0.3
7San Diego State University
Aztecs		71.79
school +0.19		Sophia Cerretti / Sofia Dorman
Marley Daniel / Beverly Schimmel 0.30
Rachael Tier / Lila Kramer		21%1–5 (17%)−0.2
8University of California at Berkeley
Bears		52.90
school +0.18		Alyssa Cunningham Barkus / Amelia Gassner 1.01
Bianca Weber / Aliyah Al-Khafaji 0.48
Selah Dorn / Viola Phillips Frank		34%1–6 (14%)−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University10.2713.276–06.0≥+3.000.099%
2University of Hawaii5.868.185–14.4+2.320.947%
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.4.005.905–23.7+1.901.716%
6Western Washington University1.471.981–50.7+0.500.157%
5University of Washington2.853.352–41.6+0.500.155%
7San Diego State University1.791.431–51.3−0.360.181%
4University of California at Santa Barbara5.153.964–25.0−1.190.996%
8University of California at Berkeley2.901.201–62.4−1.701.698%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Kahlia BaileyUniversity of Hawaii1.534.534–03.4≥+3.001.048%
Sophie FisherStanford University3.696.695–05.0≥+3.000.099%
Ellie HarnedStanford University3.476.476–06.0≥+3.000.099%
Kit HarnedStanford University2.655.653–03.0≥+3.000.0>99%
Piper BlackbandStanford University3.126.123–03.0≥+3.000.099%
Martha SchuesslerUniversity of Hawaii2.364.674–13.4+2.310.848%
Elizabeth FourneyUniversity of Hawaii1.613.833–12.5+2.220.754%
Marina PriskichCal Poly University S.L.O.1.843.745–23.7+1.901.716%
Mila KaneCal Poly University S.L.O.1.373.275–23.7+1.901.716%
Brynn JollyCal Poly University S.L.O.0.632.535–23.7+1.901.716%
Stella TaherianUniversity of Hawaii2.253.824–13.8+1.570.281%
Luca CampbellWestern Washington University1.091.591–50.7+0.500.157%
Addison DunnWestern Washington University0.551.051–50.7+0.500.157%
Sofia Brown PatricioWestern Washington University0.330.831–50.7+0.500.157%
Sammy FarkasUniversity of Washington1.702.202–41.6+0.500.155%
Stephanie SetoUniversity of Washington1.171.672–41.6+0.500.155%
Allegra McalpinUniversity of Washington0.040.542–41.6+0.500.155%
Sophia CerrettiSan Diego State University0.35-0.011–51.3−0.360.181%
Marley DanielSan Diego State University0.30-0.061–51.3−0.360.181%
Rachael TierSan Diego State University0.710.351–51.3−0.360.181%
Hailey ThompsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.160.974–25.0−1.190.996%
Evelyn EngebretsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.560.374–25.0−1.190.996%
Emery SularzUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.500.314–25.0−1.190.996%
Alyssa Cunningham BarkusUniversity of California at Berkeley1.01-0.681–62.4−1.701.698%
Bianca WeberUniversity of California at Berkeley0.48-1.221–62.4−1.701.698%
Selah DornUniversity of California at Berkeley1.08-0.621–62.4−1.701.698%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of WashingtonUniversity of California at Berkeley52%
12University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.90%
13University of California at Santa BarbaraWestern Washington University97%
14Stanford UniversitySan Diego State University100%
15University of HawaiiUniversity of Washington96%
16University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley91%
17Cal Poly University S.L.O.San Diego State University90%
18Stanford UniversityWestern Washington University100%
19University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Santa Barbara57%
110University of WashingtonSan Diego State University74%
111University of California at BerkeleyWestern Washington University80%
112Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.100%
113University of California at Santa BarbaraSan Diego State University97%
114University of HawaiiWestern Washington University98%
115Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Washington76%
116Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley100%
117Western Washington UniversitySan Diego State University40%upset
118Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Santa Barbara24%upset
119University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley96%
120Stanford UniversityUniversity of Washington100%
121Cal Poly University S.L.O.Western Washington University93%
122San Diego State UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley26%upset
123University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Washington91%
124Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%
125Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley75%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsMustangsGauchosHuskiesVikingsAztecsBears
Stanford University Cardinal6–1✕WWLWWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows5–2L✕WWWWLW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs5–2LL✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5–2WLL✕WWWW
University of Washington Huskies2–5LLLL✕LWW
Western Washington University Vikings2–5LLLLW✕WL
San Diego State University Aztecs2–5LWLLLL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–6LLLLLWL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
2 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
3 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
4 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 4-5-6
5 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-6
6 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
7 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-3-4 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 1-5-6
8 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
9 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
10 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 4-5-6
11 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
13 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 4-5-6
14 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1-4-6
15 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
16 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
17 Western Washington University Vikings 1-4-5 def. San Diego State University Aztecs 2-3-6
18 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
19 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-6
21 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
22 San Diego State University Aztecs 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-5-6
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
25 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-5
26 Western Washington University Vikings def. University of Washington Huskies
27 San Diego State University Aztecs def. University of Hawaii Rainbows
28 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos def. Stanford University Cardinal

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →