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The Turner Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 13–3
2 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 13–3
3 The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 10–6
4 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 10–6
5 University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 4–12
6 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 5–13
7 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 3–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,440 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 40 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.349 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Florida State University
Seminoles		16.09Peter Foley / Niah Ford 2.82
Brady Parks / Matthew Aguilera 1.65 9–2
Kamron Kaiser / Patrick Parker 1.47 9–2
Brady Parks / Patrick Parker 1.69 2–1
Kamron Kaiser / Avery Harris 1.54 2–1		85%11–3 (79%)−0.9
2Rollins College
Tars		25.40Shay Bridge / Julia Scott 1.80
Jackson Mcgeough / Maggie Burnham 1.74
Hilton Kamps / Jane Mckenzie 1.79		68%11–3 (79%)+1.5
3The Citadel
Bulldogs		44.60
school −0.21, home +0.37		Kenneth Buck / Alana Hantz 1.68
Andrew Tollefson / Luke Pennisi 1.68
Henry Parker / Carolyn Staples 1.04		52%8–6 (57%)+0.8
4Clemson University
Tigers		34.76
school −0.18		Luke Adams / Jonathan Caruso 1.55
Mitchell Hnatt / Bryson Eaton 2.08
William Avery / Hannah Glavin 6–2
Mason Baird / Hannah Glavin 2–4		62%8–6 (57%)−0.6
5University of Central Florida
Knights		51.77Julian Larsen / Brianna Nardelli 0.73
Charlie Eckert / Nathan Crovatto 1.02
Rain Hong / Gianna Gagliardi 2–9
Rain Hong / Kayla Doering 0–3		12%2–12 (14%)+0.3
7Duke University
Blue Devils		61.33Jack Wigmore / Ava Wietlisbach
Ryan Froeb / Jake Tirado
Kay Lyon / Debbie Spam		11%0–10 (0%)−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Rollins College5.406.1311–39.5+0.720.825%
3The Citadel4.604.988–67.2+0.380.240%
5University of Central Florida1.772.102–121.7+0.330.155%
4Clemson University4.764.478–68.6−0.300.179%
1Florida State University6.095.5611–311.9−0.540.488%
7Duke University1.33-1.670–101.0≤−3.001.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
William AveryClemson University0.761.996–25.1+1.240.828%
Jackson McgeoughRollins College1.742.4611–39.5+0.720.825%
Kenneth BuckThe Citadel1.682.068–67.2+0.380.240%
Andrew TollefsonThe Citadel1.682.068–67.2+0.380.240%
Henry ParkerThe Citadel1.041.428–67.2+0.380.240%
Julian LarsenUniversity of Central Florida0.731.062–121.7+0.330.155%
Rain HongUniversity of Central Florida-0.250.082–121.7+0.330.155%
Brady ParksFlorida State University1.651.1111–311.9−0.540.488%
Kamron KaiserFlorida State University1.470.9311–311.9−0.540.488%
Jack WigmoreDuke University0.32-2.680–101.0≤−3.001.8>99%
Ryan FroebDuke University0.36-2.640–101.0≤−3.001.8>99%
Kay LyonDuke University0.18-2.820–101.0≤−3.001.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Rollins CollegeDuke University99%
12Clemson UniversityUniversity of Central Florida94%
14The CitadelDuke University97%
15Rollins CollegeClemson University53%
17Florida State UniversityThe Citadel80%
18Clemson UniversityDuke University96%
110Florida State UniversityUniversity of Central Florida99%
111The CitadelClemson University33%upset
113Florida State UniversityRollins College66%
114The CitadelUniversity of Central Florida95%
116Florida State UniversityDuke University99%
117Rollins CollegeUniversity of Central Florida98%
119Florida State UniversityClemson University86%
120University of Central FloridaDuke University59%
121Rollins CollegeThe Citadel69%
222Rollins CollegeDuke University98%
223Clemson UniversityUniversity of Central Florida93%
225The CitadelDuke University96%
226Clemson UniversityRollins College49%upset
228Florida State UniversityThe Citadel81%
229Clemson UniversityDuke University95%
231Florida State UniversityUniversity of Central Florida99%
232Clemson UniversityThe Citadel68%
234Florida State UniversityRollins College67%
235The CitadelUniversity of Central Florida94%
237Florida State UniversityDuke University99%
238Rollins CollegeUniversity of Central Florida97%
240Clemson UniversityFlorida State University14%upset
241University of Central FloridaDuke University58%
242Rollins CollegeThe Citadel69%
543Rollins CollegeClemson University51%
544The CitadelFlorida State University18%upset
545Clemson UniversityUniversity of Central Florida93%
546Rollins CollegeFlorida State University33%upset
547The CitadelUniversity of Central Florida94%
548Florida State UniversityClemson University86%
549Rollins CollegeThe Citadel69%
550Florida State UniversityUniversity of Central Florida99%
551The CitadelClemson University31%upset
552Rollins CollegeUniversity of Central Florida97%

Round 1

TeamRec.SeminolesTarsBulldogsTigersKnightsPanthersDevils
Florida State University Seminoles6–0✕WWWWWW
Rollins College Tars5–1L✕WWWWW
The Citadel Bulldogs4–2LL✕WWWW
Clemson University Tigers3–3LLL✕WWW
University of Central Florida Knights2–4LLLL✕WW
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers1–6LLLLL✕L
Duke University Blue Devils1–6LLLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.SeminolesTarsBulldogsTigersKnightsPanthersDevils
Florida State University Seminoles5–1✕WWLWWW
Rollins College Tars4–2L✕WLWWW
The Citadel Bulldogs3–3LL✕LWWW
Clemson University Tigers6–0WWW✕WWW
University of Central Florida Knights2–4LLLL✕WW
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers1–6LLLLL✕W
Duke University Blue Devils1–6LLLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.PanthersDevils
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers1–0✕W
Duke University Blue Devils0–1L✕

Round 4

TeamRec.PanthersDevils
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers1–0✕W
Duke University Blue Devils0–1L✕

Round 5

TeamRec.SeminolesTarsBulldogsTigersKnightsPanthersDevils
Florida State University Seminoles2–2✕LLWW––
Rollins College Tars4–0W✕WWW––
The Citadel Bulldogs3–1WL✕WW––
Clemson University Tigers1–3LLL✕W––
University of Central Florida Knights0–4LLLL✕––
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers1–0–––––✕W
Duke University Blue Devils0–1–––––L✕

Round 6

TeamRec.PanthersDevils
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers0–1✕L
Duke University Blue Devils1–0W✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Rollins College Tars 1-2-3 def. Duke University Blue Devils 4-5-6
2 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-4 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-5-6
3 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-3 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 4-5-6
4 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-4-5
5 Rollins College Tars 1-3-6 def. Clemson University Tigers 2-4-5
6 University of Central Florida Knights 1-4-5 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-3-6
7 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-6 def. The Citadel Bulldogs 3-4-5
8 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-3 def. Duke University Blue Devils 4-5-6
9 Rollins College Tars 1-2-5 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-4-6
10 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-5 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-4-6
11 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-6
12 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-2-6 DNF def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-4-5
13 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
14 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-5-6
15 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-6 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-4-5
16 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-4 def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-5-6
17 Rollins College Tars 1-2-3 def. University of Central Florida Knights 4-5-6
18 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-4-5
19 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-6 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-4-5
20 University of Central Florida Knights 1-3-4 def. Duke University Blue Devils 2-5-6 DNF
21 Rollins College Tars 1-2-6 def. The Citadel Bulldogs 3-4-5
53 Duke University Blue Devils 2-3-5 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-4-6
22 Rollins College Tars 1-2-5 def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-4-6
23 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-4 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-5-6
24 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-4 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-5-6
25 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-6 DNF def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-4-5
26 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Tars 3-4-6
27 University of Central Florida Knights 1-3-6 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-4-5
28 Florida State University Seminoles 2-3-4 def. The Citadel Bulldogs 1-5-6
29 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-4 def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-5-6
30 Rollins College Tars 2-3-4 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-5-6
31 Florida State University Seminoles 1-4-5 def. University of Central Florida Knights 2-3-6
32 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-5 def. The Citadel Bulldogs 3-4-6
33 Duke University Blue Devils 1-3-4 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-5-6
34 Florida State University Seminoles 1-3-5 def. Rollins College Tars 2-4-6
35 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-5-6
36 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-6 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-4-5
37 Florida State University Seminoles 1-2-5 def. Duke University Blue Devils 3-4-6
38 Rollins College Tars 1-2-5 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-4-6
39 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-5-6
40 Clemson University Tigers 1-3-5 def. Florida State University Seminoles 2-4-6
41 University of Central Florida Knights 1-2-3 def. Duke University Blue Devils 4-5-6
42 Rollins College Tars 1-2-5 def. The Citadel Bulldogs 3-4-6
54 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-3-4 def. Duke University Blue Devils 1-5-6 DNF
55 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 1-2-3 def. Duke University Blue Devils 4-5-6
56 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-3-4 def. Duke University Blue Devils 1-5-6
43 Rollins College Tars 1-2-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-5-6
44 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-3-6 def. Florida State University Seminoles 2-4-5
45 Clemson University Tigers 1-2-6 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-4-5
46 Rollins College Tars 1-3-5 def. Florida State University Seminoles 2-4-6
47 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-4-5
48 Florida State University Seminoles 2-3-5 def. Clemson University Tigers 1-4-6
49 Rollins College Tars 2-3-4 def. The Citadel Bulldogs 1-5-6
50 Florida State University Seminoles 2-3-4 def. University of Central Florida Knights 1-5-6
51 The Citadel Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Clemson University Tigers 3-5-6
52 Rollins College Tars 1-2-4 def. University of Central Florida Knights 3-5-6
57 Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 2-3-4 def. Duke University Blue Devils 1-5-6
58 Duke University Blue Devils 1-2-4 def. Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From W (259°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1011.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Citadel — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Citadel in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Citadel by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Citadel, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →