Rollins College '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 (fleet 2.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–45 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 16–16 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 15–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (76 matches) the record is 31–45 against 29.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | SAISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.86 | 2.36 | 3–6 | 2.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2025-03-08 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | 1.79 | 2.52 | 11–3 | 9.5 | +0.72 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.77 | 1.37 | 2–7 | 2.4 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2024-04-05 | SAISA Spring Open Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.86 | 1.23 | 2–10 | 2.6 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2024-03-30 | SAISA South Team Race | skipper | 1.85 | 2.07 | 3–3 | 2.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2024-03-09 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | 1.82 | 1.77 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2024-02-17 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.46 | 1.42 | 5–13 | 5.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 66% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Hilton Kamps |  Oxbridge Academy |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
