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SAISA Fall 2v2 Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 9–1
2 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7–3
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls Women 6–4
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 5–5
5 Rollins College Rollins College Gold 2–8
6 Rollins College Rollins College Blue 1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,728 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 2 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.450 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
2University of South Florida
Bulls		14.65
school −0.09		Luke Justin / Colin Molnar
Humberto Porrata / Dana Aljasir 2.14
No Show / Garrett Floerchinger		64%2–0 (100%)+0.7
3University of South Florida
Bulls Women		24.08
school −0.09		Heidi Hicks / Madisen Hamai 1.65
Marina Dreyfuss / Saleta Powell
No Show / Ochithya Fernando		36%0–2 (0%)−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of South Florida Bulls4.657.652–01.3≥+3.001.241%
3University of South Florida Bulls Women4.081.080–20.7≤−3.001.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
No ShowUniversity of South Florida1.271.272–22.0−0.000.070%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
111University of South Florida BullsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women63%
219University of South Florida BullsUniversity of South Florida Bulls Women64%

Round 1

TeamRec.FinsBullsWomenDolphinsGoldBlue
Jacksonville University Fins7–3✕WW✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls7–3L✕✕LWW
University of South Florida Bulls Women7–3L✕✕LWW
Jacksonville University Dolphins7–3✕WW✕WW
Rollins College Gold1–9LLLL✕✕
Rollins College Blue1–9LLLL✕✕

Round 2

TeamRec.FinsBullsWomenDolphinsGoldBlue
Jacksonville University Fins7–3✕WW✕LL
University of South Florida Bulls6–4L✕✕LWW
University of South Florida Bulls Women6–4L✕✕LWW
Jacksonville University Dolphins7–3✕WW✕LL
Rollins College Gold2–8WLLW✕✕
Rollins College Blue2–8WLLW✕✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-6
2 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Gold 3-4-6
3 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. Rollins College Blue 1-4-6
4 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-6
5 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
6 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Gold 3-4-6
7 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
8 Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-3-5 def. Rollins College Gold 1-4-6
9 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
10 Rollins College Gold 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
11 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
12 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-6
13 University of South Florida Bulls Women 2-3-5 def. Rollins College Gold 1-4-6
14 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
15 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-6
16 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-6
17 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Gold 3-4-6
18 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
19 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
20 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
21 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-5 def. Rollins College Gold 2-4-6
22 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
23 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-3-5 def. Rollins College Gold 2-4-6
24 Jacksonville University Dolphins 2-3-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-4-6
25 Rollins College Blue 2-3-5 def. Rollins College Gold 1-4-6
26 Jacksonville University Dolphins 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-6
27 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls Women 3-4-6
28 Rollins College Gold 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Dolphins 3-4-6
29 University of South Florida Bulls Women 1-2-5 def. Rollins College Blue 3-4-6
30 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6

Conditions — 10/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.5 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1010.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Rollins — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Rollins in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →