Jacksonville University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.65 (fleet 2.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–21 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 9–6 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 6–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (36 matches) the record is 15–21 against 17.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Lake Virginia Team Race | skipper | 1.77 | 1.22 | 9–6 | 10.5 | −0.55 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | 1.82 | -1.18 | 0–3 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 5.0 | >99% |
| 2022-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 0.87 | 2–6 | 2.8 | −1.05 | 0.6 | 95% |
| 2022-02-26 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 3.12 | 4–6 | 2.5 | +1.50 | 1.9 | 10% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Top 18 Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.1 | 1.52 |
| Old Florida | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Lake Virginia Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Halifax River Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 2.48 |
| Bud Morrow Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 3.05 |
| 2025 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.6 | 2.16 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 2.45 |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.4 | 0.65 |
| SAISA South Fall Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.2 | 4.95 |
| The Dick Allsop Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 2.86 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| 2024 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.1 | 1.96 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Fall 2v2 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Eckerd Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.7 | 2.07 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Spring Open (Top 18) Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 2.77 |
| Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.8 | 1.60 |
| 2023 Florida Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.3 | 2.88 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | -0.27 |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | -1.58 |
| SAISA Fall 2v2 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Open Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 17.5 | -0.13 |
| Eckerd Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.4 | 2.41 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 2.33 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 1.12 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 2.05 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.2 | 2.80 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 2.15 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.4 | 2.21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
