Bob Bavier Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/05/2022
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	16–2
2	Harvard University	Crimson	14–4
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	13–5
4	Tulane University	Green Wave	11–7
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	11–7
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas	9–9
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–10
8	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	5–13
9	Jacksonville University	Fins	3–15
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	0–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 73 of 90 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.408 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 71% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.37 school +0.42	Jack Parkin / Anaclare Sole 3.90 Wiley Rogers / Patricia Gerli 3.42 Michelle Lahrkamp / Sammy Pickell 3.62	90%	16–2 (89%)	−0.3
2	Harvard University Crimson	2	9.72	Emma Kaneti / Tyler Masuyama 3.12 Lachlain Mcgranahan / Cassia Lee 3.61 Dylan Ascencios / Alexandra Dorofeev 2.86	63%	14–4 (78%)	+2.6
3	College of Charleston Cougars	7	9.05 school +0.43	Max Anker / Kalea Woodard 3.01 Brandon Geller / Lucy Klempen 3.04 10–4 Pierce Ornstein / Noelle Owen 2.37 8–2 Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.81 5–3 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Klempen 2.93 3–1	48%	13–5 (72%)	+4.3
4	Tulane University Green Wave	3	9.60 school −0.05	Marcus Huttunen / Grace Siwicki 3.22 Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.50 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.90	61%	11–7 (61%)	+0.1
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5	9.38 school −0.18	David Eastwood / Sydney Aguirre 3.37 Chris Kayda / Kyla Murphy 3.16 Sidney Gathrid / Julia Roudebush 3.02	58%	11–7 (61%)	+0.6
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	9.52 school +0.14	Diego Escobar / Grace Flanagan Edward Cook / Audrey Fung 2.89 Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston	60%	9–9 (50%)	−1.8
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6	9.30 school −0.10	Daniel Unangst / Jack Farrell 3.25 Matthew Kickhafer / Lauren O'Neill 2.98 8–6 Colman Schofield / Mary Tran 3–9 Nathan Olmsted / Charles Mason 3.05 5–5	56%	8–10 (44%)	−2.0
8	University of Wisconsin Badgers	8	8.31 school −0.20	Samuel Bartel / Lucas Quinn 2.86 Christian Spencer / Allison Hansen 2.84 Jonathan Bailey / Cristina Dombrowski 2.74	35%	5–13 (28%)	−1.4
9	Jacksonville University Fins	9	7.81 school +0.14	Gordon Gurnell / Elisabeth Bowman 2.84 Matthew King / Rori Bywater 2.83 Brent Penwarden / Mia Porter 1.98 1–9 Stefanos Pappas / Mia Porter 1.92 2–6	26%	3–15 (17%)	−1.7
10	University of South Florida Bulls	10	5.23	Andreas Keswater / Emmy Digiacomo 1.95 Chloe Sweeting / Hannah Marsicano 1.65 Jordan Byrd / Erik Volk	2%	0–18 (0%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	College of Charleston	9.05	10.33	13–5	8.7	+1.28	3.9	2%
2	Harvard University	9.72	10.62	14–4	11.4	+0.90	1.6	12%
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.38	9.56	11–7	10.4	+0.18	0.1	48%
4	Tulane University	9.60	9.62	11–7	10.9	+0.02	0.0	60%
1	Stanford University	11.37	11.20	16–2	16.3	−0.17	0.0	76%
8	University of Wisconsin	8.31	7.80	5–13	6.4	−0.52	0.5	87%
6	Georgetown University	9.52	8.99	9–9	10.8	−0.53	0.7	89%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.30	8.70	8–10	10.0	−0.61	0.9	92%
9	Jacksonville University	7.81	6.88	3–15	4.7	−0.93	1.1	94%
10	University of South Florida	5.23	2.23	0–18	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.81	3.83	8–4	5.8	+1.02	1.6	12%
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	2.86	3.76	14–4	11.4	+0.90	1.6	12%
Sidney Gathrid	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.02	3.20	11–7	10.4	+0.18	0.1	48%
Asher Zittrer	Tulane University	2.90	2.92	11–7	10.9	+0.02	0.0	60%
Edward Cook	Georgetown University	2.89	2.36	9–9	10.8	−0.53	0.7	89%
Stefanos Pappas	Jacksonville University	1.92	0.87	2–6	2.8	−1.05	0.6	95%
Andreas Keswater	University of South Florida	1.95	-1.05	0–18	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%
Jordan Byrd	University of South Florida	1.34	-1.66	0–18	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	97%
1	2	Harvard University	Tulane University	51%
1	3	University of California at Santa Barbara	Georgetown University	49%	upset
1	4	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	99%
1	5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Wisconsin	72%
1	6	Harvard University	Jacksonville University	87%
1	7	Stanford University	Georgetown University	87%
1	8	College of Charleston	Tulane University	43%	upset
1	9	University of Wisconsin	University of California at Santa Barbara	25%	upset
1	10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	98%
1	11	Harvard University	Georgetown University	56%
1	12	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	74%
1	13	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	96%
1	14	Tulane University	University of South Florida	99%
1	15	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	54%
1	16	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	36%	upset
1	17	Harvard University	University of Wisconsin	80%
1	18	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	93%
1	19	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	88%
1	20	Tulane University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
1	21	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	61%
1	22	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	99%
1	23	University of California at Santa Barbara	Harvard University	42%	upset
1	24	Tulane University	Jacksonville University	86%
1	25	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	89%
1	26	University of Wisconsin	University of South Florida	96%
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara	College of Charleston	65%
1	28	Tulane University	Georgetown University	53%
1	29	Stanford University	Harvard University	84%
1	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Jacksonville University	82%
1	31	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of South Florida	98%
1	32	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	78%
1	33	Stanford University	College of Charleston	89%
1	34	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	85%
1	35	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
1	36	Tulane University	University of California at Santa Barbara	55%
1	37	Stanford University	University of South Florida	100%
1	38	University of Wisconsin	Jacksonville University	62%
1	39	College of Charleston	Harvard University	40%	upset
1	40	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	53%
1	41	Stanford University	Tulane University	85%
1	42	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	83%
1	43	Harvard University	University of South Florida	99%
1	44	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	77%
1	45	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	37%	upset
2	46	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	97%
2	47	Harvard University	Tulane University	53%
2	48	University of California at Santa Barbara	Georgetown University	46%	upset
2	49	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	98%
2	50	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Wisconsin	71%
2	51	Harvard University	Jacksonville University	87%
2	52	Georgetown University	Stanford University	14%	upset
2	53	College of Charleston	Tulane University	43%	upset
2	54	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	74%
2	55	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	98%
2	56	Harvard University	Georgetown University	55%
2	57	Jacksonville University	College of Charleston	26%	upset
2	58	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	95%
2	59	Tulane University	University of South Florida	99%
2	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	46%	upset
2	61	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	34%	upset
2	62	Harvard University	University of Wisconsin	80%
2	63	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	92%
2	64	University of California at Santa Barbara	Stanford University	12%	upset
2	65	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tulane University	43%	upset
2	66	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	61%
2	67	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	99%
2	68	Harvard University	University of California at Santa Barbara	59%
2	69	Tulane University	Jacksonville University	86%
2	70	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
2	71	University of Wisconsin	University of South Florida	95%
2	72	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	35%	upset
2	73	Tulane University	Georgetown University	51%
2	74	Stanford University	Harvard University	83%
2	75	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Jacksonville University	82%
2	76	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of South Florida	98%
2	77	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	78%
2	78	Stanford University	College of Charleston	88%
2	79	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	85%
2	80	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
2	81	Tulane University	University of California at Santa Barbara	55%
2	82	Stanford University	University of South Florida	100%
2	83	University of Wisconsin	Jacksonville University	62%
2	84	Harvard University	College of Charleston	60%
2	85	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	54%
2	86	Stanford University	Tulane University	85%
2	87	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	82%
2	88	Harvard University	University of South Florida	99%
2	89	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	78%
2	90	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	37%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Crimson	Cougars	Wave	Gauchos	Hoyas	Bears	Badgers	Fins	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	6–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–3	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Crimson	Cougars	Wave	Gauchos	Hoyas	Bears	Badgers	Fins	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
2	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
3	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
4	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
5	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
6	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
7	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
8	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
9	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
10	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
11	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
12	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
13	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
14	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
15	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
16	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
17	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
18	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
19	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
20	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
21	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
22	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
23	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
24	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
25	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
26	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
27	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
28	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
29	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
30	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
31	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
32	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Badgers	2-3-6
33	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
35	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
36	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
38	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
39	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
40	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
42	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
43	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
45	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
46	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
47	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
48	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
49	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
51	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
52	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
53	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
54	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
55	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
56	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
57	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
58	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
59	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
60	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Gauchos	2-4-5
61	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
62	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
63	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
64	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
65	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Green Wave	2-4-5
66	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
67	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
68	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
69	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
71	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
72	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
73	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
74	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
75	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
76	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
77	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
78	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
79	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
80	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
81	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
82	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
83	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
84	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
85	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
86	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
87	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
88	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
89	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
90	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Wiley Rogers '22	Anaclare Sole '23 Sammy Pickell '22 Patricia Gerli '23
Harvard University	Crimson	Dylan Ascencios '24 Emma Kaneti '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24	Alexandra Dorofeev '25 Tyler Masuyama '23 Cassia Lee '23
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Brandon Geller '23 Max Anker '24 Pierce Ornstein '22	Noelle Owen '23 Lucy Klempen '24 Kalea Woodard '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Marcus Huttunen '24	Gillian Perrell '24 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Grace Siwicki '22
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Chris Kayda '23 David Eastwood '22 Sidney Gathrid '22	Kyla Murphy '23 Sydney Aguirre '22 Julia Roudebush '23
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Edward Cook '23 Mateo Di Blasi '25	Grace Flanagan '23 Audrey Fung '24 Caro Gaston '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Colman Schofield '25 Daniel Unangst '24 Matthew Kickhafer '23 Nathan Olmsted '23	Mary Tran '22 Jack Farrell '23 Lauren O'Neill '24 Charles Mason '23
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Christian Spencer '22 Jonathan Bailey '22 Samuel Bartel '22	Allison Hansen '23 Cristina Dombrowski '23 Lucas Quinn '22
Jacksonville University	Fins	Brent Penwarden '24 Gordon Gurnell '23 Matthew King '24 Stefanos Pappas '25	Mia Porter '22 Elisabeth Bowman '22 Rori Bywater '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andreas Keswater '24 Chloe Sweeting '22 Jordan Byrd '24	Emmy Digiacomo '24 Hannah Marsicano '24 Erik Volk '23

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1028.8 hPa

Temperature

70°F

↑ 75°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 9.9 kn

Gusts to 18.5 kn

From ESE (112°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1028.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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