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SAISA South Top 6 Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 84
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 100
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 130
4 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 150
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 154
6 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 163
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes A 7 4 6 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 34 Zachary Ward '25 [1-4]
Atlee Kohl '25 [5-10]
Sandra Heilshorn '23 [1-4]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons A 1 9 3 2 3 2 3 3 7 3 36 Eden Nykamp '25
Amelia Johnson '25
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers A 3 1 7 1 6 9 4 4 4 2 41 Brendan Smucker '25
Harpoon Seabring '22
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes B 6 6 2 4 2 10 5 5 2 8 50 Steven Hardee '26
Taylor Ferrarone '26
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 4 3 5 6 5 5 6 9 5 7 55 Brent Penwarden '24
Nilias Vidarte '26
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles A 9 8 4 3 4 4 11 2 DSQ 4 62 Joey Meagher '24 [1-10]
Niah Ford '26 [1-2]
Avery Harris '25 [3-10]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons B 5 2 1 7 9 11 8 8 3 10 64 Griffin Richardson '25
Tess Heilman '26
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 8 7 9 5 8 7 7 10 8 5 74 Zachariah Schemel '25
Brilan Christopher '24
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 10 5 11 8 11 6 2 7 9 6 75 Stefanos Pappas '25 [1-4, 9-10]
Owen Bannasch '26 [5-8]
Reagan Carris '26 [1-4, 9-10]
Kayla Putzke '24 [5-8]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 2 11 8 9 10 3 9 11 6 11 80 Jordan Byrd '24
Saleta Powell '25
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles B 12 12 12 12 7 8 10 6 10 12 101 Brady Parks '25 [1-10]
Joseph Martinez '24 [1-2]
Niah Ford '26 [3-10]
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers B 11 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 11 9 109 Brandon Depalma '24
Sofia Scarpa '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons3344556677
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles556677991010
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers4433181815151414
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins665544331818
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes7799101011111313
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls9977665544

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons10101111131314141515
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles131314141515181833
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers11111010997766
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins141413131111101099
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes15151818334455
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls18181515141413131111

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From E (95°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.28 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at U. Miami: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at U. Miami by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at U. Miami).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →