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Mendelblatt Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 8–2
2 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 8–2
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6–4
4 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 4–6
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 4–6
6 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,026 team race matches sailed before 2022-02-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.433 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.42 ± 0.31: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1College of Charleston
Cougars		19.01
school +0.42		Axel Stordahl / Noelle Owen 2.87 6–2
Max Anker / Anna Sherry 2.98 6–2
Brandon Geller / Chloe Hudgins 3.04 4–2
Pierce Ornstein / Chloe Hudgins 2.42 4–0
Pierce Ornstein / Noelle Owen 2.39 2–0
Max Anker / Jack Sutton 3.06 2–0		94%8–2 (80%)−1.4
2University of Miami
Hurricanes		27.46
school −0.09		Richard Mccann / Grace Harden 2.36
Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder
Aidan Dennis / Chloe Beach		72%8–2 (80%)+0.8
3University of South Florida
Bulls		36.73
school +0.07, home +0.34		Andreas Keswater / Emmy Digiacomo 1.90
Humberto Porrata / Jackie Morrison
Zachariah Schemel / Aine-Maire Porter 2.34 5–3
Zachariah Schemel / Hannah Marsicano 2.36 1–1		62%6–4 (60%)−0.2
4Eckerd College
Tritons		45.79
school +0.07		Griffin Richardson / Elissa Martinez
Eden Nykamp / Brooks Jordan
Cameron Robinson / Amelia Johnson 2–6
Sean Tallman / Amelia Johnson 2–0		45%4–6 (40%)−0.5
5Jacksonville University
Fins		54.66
school +0.11		Stefanos Pappas / Piper Desantis
Thomas Pappas / Mia Porter
Patrick Barney / Elisabeth Bowman 2–4
Aden Anderson / Kayla Putzke 2–2		25%4–6 (40%)+1.5
6Rollins College
Tars		62.42Carly Orhan / Angelina Khourisader
Jackson Mcgeough / Imogene Dunn
Jason Goldsmith / Clayton Weum		3%0–10 (0%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
5Jacksonville University4.666.164–62.5+1.501.910%
2University of Miami7.468.368–27.2+0.900.540%
3University of South Florida6.736.616–46.2−0.120.073%
4Eckerd College5.795.254–64.5−0.540.287%
1College of Charleston9.017.458–29.4−1.551.899%
6Rollins College2.42-0.580–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Stefanos PappasJacksonville University1.623.124–62.5+1.501.910%
Thomas PappasJacksonville University1.402.904–62.5+1.501.910%
Richard MccannUniversity of Miami2.363.268–27.2+0.900.540%
Atlee KohlUniversity of Miami2.583.498–27.2+0.900.540%
Aidan DennisUniversity of Miami2.263.168–27.2+0.900.540%
Aden AndersonJacksonville University1.261.392–22.0+0.130.086%
Andreas KeswaterUniversity of South Florida1.901.786–46.2−0.120.073%
Zachariah SchemelUniversity of South Florida2.342.226–46.2−0.120.073%
Axel StordahlCollege of Charleston2.871.016–27.5−1.862.399%
Jackson McgeoughRollins College0.23-2.770–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%
Jason GoldsmithRollins College0.25-2.750–100.3≤−3.000.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University89%
12College of CharlestonUniversity of Miami90%
13University of South FloridaRollins College99%
14Jacksonville UniversityCollege of Charleston1%upset
15University of South FloridaEckerd College76%
16University of MiamiRollins College99%
17Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida10%upset
18College of CharlestonRollins College100%
19University of MiamiEckerd College86%
110College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida88%
111Eckerd CollegeRollins College96%
112University of MiamiJacksonville University94%
113College of CharlestonEckerd College96%
114University of MiamiUniversity of South Florida68%
115Jacksonville UniversityRollins College92%
216Eckerd CollegeJacksonville University85%
217University of MiamiCollege of Charleston14%upset
218University of South FloridaRollins College99%
219College of CharlestonJacksonville University99%
220University of South FloridaEckerd College75%
221University of MiamiRollins College99%
222University of South FloridaJacksonville University89%
223College of CharlestonRollins College100%
224University of MiamiEckerd College86%
225College of CharlestonUniversity of South Florida87%
226Eckerd CollegeRollins College96%
227University of MiamiJacksonville University93%
228College of CharlestonEckerd College96%
229University of South FloridaUniversity of Miami31%upset
230Jacksonville UniversityRollins College92%

Round 1

TeamRec.CougarsHurricanesBullsTritonsFinsTars
College of Charleston Cougars4–1✕WWWLW
University of Miami Hurricanes4–1L✕WWWW
University of South Florida Bulls2–3LL✕WLW
Eckerd College Tritons2–3LLL✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2WLWL✕W
Rollins College Tars0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CougarsHurricanesBullsTritonsFinsTars
College of Charleston Cougars4–1✕LWWWW
University of Miami Hurricanes4–1W✕LWWW
University of South Florida Bulls4–1LW✕WWW
Eckerd College Tritons2–3LLL✕WW
Jacksonville University Fins1–4LLLL✕W
Rollins College Tars0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-6 DNF def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
2 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
3 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6
4 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. College of Charleston Cougars 3-4-5
5 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
6 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6
7 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-4-6
8 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6
9 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Eckerd College Tritons 4-5-6
10 College of Charleston Cougars 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
11 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6
12 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
13 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-6
14 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
15 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
16 Eckerd College Tritons 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
17 University of Miami Hurricanes 2-3-4 def. College of Charleston Cougars 1-5-6
18 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
19 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
20 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
21 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
22 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
23 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
24 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-4 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-5-6
25 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
26 Eckerd College Tritons 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
27 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-5-6
28 College of Charleston Cougars 1-2-6 def. Eckerd College Tritons 3-4-5
29 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
30 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. Rollins College Tars 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS

Conditions — 02/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 13.8 kn
Gusts to 24.3 kn
From N (349°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1023.8 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →