| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 13–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 11–3 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 9–5 |
| 4 |  |
Florida State University | Seminoles | 7–7 |
| 5 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 7–7 |
| 6 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 6–8 |
| 7 |  |
Clemson University | Tigers | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
Embry-Riddle University | Eagles | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,057 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 60 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.371 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.18 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rollins College | 0.65 | 1.93 | 1–8 | 0.7 | +1.29 | 0.3 | 64% |
| 5 | North Carolina State University | 5.70 | 6.72 | 7–7 | 5.1 | +1.02 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 6 | Eckerd College | 5.68 | 6.29 | 6–8 | 4.9 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 3 | University of South Florida | 7.02 | 7.52 | 9–5 | 8.0 | +0.51 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 7 | Clemson University | 4.47 | 4.89 | 3–6 | 2.7 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 9.51 | 9.48 | 13–1 | 13.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2 | University of Miami | 8.42 | 8.20 | 11–3 | 11.3 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 4 | Florida State University | 7.12 | 6.39 | 7–7 | 8.4 | −0.73 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 8 | Jacksonville University | 6.81 | 4.41 | 3–6 | 5.5 | −2.40 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 10 | Embry-Riddle University | 0.45 | -2.55 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Hurricanes | Bulls | Seminoles | Wolfpack | Tritons | Tigers | Fins | Tars | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 9–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 8–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 6–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 5–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 5–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 5–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Clemson University Tigers | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–6 | L | L | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Embry-Riddle University Eagles | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Hurricanes | Bulls | Seminoles | Wolfpack | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–2 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | L |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 2–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 3 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulls | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Tritons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tars | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Tigers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tars | 2-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tars | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Tritons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Tritons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tars | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Seminoles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 48 | |
Tritons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 2-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 2-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 53 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-5 |
| 56 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Bulls | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-6 |
| 58 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
