Rollins College '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.30 (fleet -0.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–23 (15%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 4–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 4–23 against 2.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-17 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | -0.05 | -3.05 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2023-03-11 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | -0.13 | 1.81 | 3–9 | 1.4 | +1.94 | 2.4 | 8% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | -0.34 | 0.94 | 1–8 | 0.7 | +1.29 | 0.3 | 64% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Top 18 Invitational | Crew | B | 2 | 5.5 | +0.01 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Jacksonville Trophy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 0.82 |
| Florida Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.0 | -0.48 |
| Bud Morrow Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | -1.15 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| The Turner Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Halifax River Invitational | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.7 | -0.28 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | -1.11 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | 0.51 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 10 | 19.9 | — |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 3 | 14.3 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
