SAISA South Points #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 22 19 41
2 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 18 31 49
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 41 16 57
4 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 23 35 58
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Lady Fins 41 36 77
6 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 44 46 90
7 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 51 47 98
8 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 42 58 100
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 4 2 2 BKD 1 2 1 4 18 Katie Nelson '24
Kristen Cooper '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 1 4 5 2 1 3 3 22 Lucien Parker '24
Lauren Theis '22
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 3 1 1 7 5 2 2 23 Mitchell Quinn '24 [1-3]
Dylan Hardt '25 [4-8]
Naomi Sterlingsdottir '22 [1-3]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6 8 6 2 5 6 7 1 41 Timothy Brustoski '24 [1-8]
Grace Skipper '23 [1-6]
Lily Theisen '23 [7-8]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Lady Fins 7 7 5 3 4 3 4 8 41 Ella Deschamps '25
Eleanor Martin '25
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 1 6 3 6 8 4 8 6 42 William Ciniski '24
Anjella Klaiber '23
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 5 4 7 4 6 8 5 5 44 Brandon Depalma '24
Harpoon Seabring '22
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 8 5 8 7 3 7 6 7 51 Marina Geilen '25
Laura Johnston '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 1 1 1 6 3 2 1 16 Robert Newland '25
Saleta Powell '25
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 2 3 2 4 1 3 2 19 Josh Becker '24
Mary Mann '23
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 3 6 5 5 1 6 1 4 31 Michael Kaufman '22
Breanna Brobst '22
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 4 3 6 7 2 2 5 6 35 Colin Caraher '25
Shane Hayward '24
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Lady Fins 8 8 2 4 3 4 4 3 36 Sara Flowerday '22
Samantha Drake '25
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 6 4 8 6 5 5 7 5 46 Mary Macdonald '24 [1-3]
Anthon Funderburk '24 [4-8]
Anthon Funderburk '24 [1-3]
Mary Macdonald '24 [4-8]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5 5 4 3 7 8 8 7 47 Julianna Skoglund '23
Olivia Campmany '25
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 8 58 Henry Campbell '25 [1-6]
Connor Teague '23 [7-8]
Connor Teague '23 [1-6]
Julian Drake '25 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles11122233
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles33344466
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers22233344
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins44466677
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Lady Fins66677788
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes88899911
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars77788899
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls99911122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles11122233
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles33344455
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers22233344
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins44455577
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Lady Fins55577788
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes88899911
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars77788899
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls99911122

Conditions — 02/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1025.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jacksonville: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →