Mendelblatt Team Race

HostEckerd
Date02/17/2024
TypeRegional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	17–1
2	University of Miami	Hurricanes	16–2
3	Jacksonville University	Fins	13–5
4	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	13–5
5	Florida State University	Seminoles	9–9
6	University of South Florida	Bulls	8–10
7	Rollins College	Tars	5–13
8	Eckerd College	Tritons	4–14
9	Clemson University	Tigers	3–15
10	The Citadel	Bulldogs	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,834 team race matches sailed before 2024-02-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 77 of 90 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.291 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	9.65 school +0.33	Axel Stordahl / Chloe Hudgins 2.91 Brandon Geller / Noelle Owen 3.26 Noah Zittrer / Lucy Klempen 3.13	94%	17–1 (94%)	+0.2
2	University of Miami Hurricanes	2	8.79	Aidan Dennis / Ana Stewart 2.97 Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.27 Steven Hardee / Briana Hummel 2.45	86%	16–2 (89%)	+0.5
3	Jacksonville University Fins	4	7.58 school −0.08	Matthew King / Madison Mihan 2.42 Brent Penwarden / Kayla Putzke 2.33 Owen Bannasch / Ella Wisely	74%	13–5 (72%)	−0.2
4	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	3	7.61 school −0.07	Isabella Du Plessis / Olivia Sowa Adam Larson / Sean Harris 2.84 11–5 Robert Chase / Shea Hoffacker 2.32 11–3 Robert Chase / Annika Milstien 2.50 2–2 Benjamin Usher / Annika Milstien 2–0	74%	13–5 (72%)	−0.3
5	Florida State University Seminoles	6	4.72	Katie Nelson / Niah Ford 2.10 Brady Parks / Joseph Martinez Lauren Connell / Avery Harris 8–6 Tia Schoening / Avery Harris 1–3	39%	9–9 (50%)	+2.0
6	University of South Florida Bulls	5	5.43 school −0.10	Jordan Byrd / Dana Aljasir 2.01 Brilan Christopher / Emmy Digiacomo 6–8 Luke Justin / Colin Molnar 1.39 5–5 Humberto Porrata / Colin Molnar 2.25 3–5 Humberto Porrata / Emmy Digiacomo 2.30 2–2	47%	8–10 (44%)	−0.5
7	Rollins College Tars	7	4.00 school +0.26	Hilton Kamps / Zi Burns Jackson Mcgeough / Jane Mckenzie 1.17 5–9 Ka Hamner / Julia Scott 5–7 Jackson Mcgeough / Sam Frushone 1.17 0–4 Julian Drake / Jane Mckenzie -0.05 0–4 Julian Drake / Sam Frushone -0.04 0–2	28%	5–13 (28%)	−0.1
8	Eckerd College Tritons	8	3.87 school −0.18, home +0.43	Brooks Jordan / Sophie Leduc Carter Morin / Tess Levanway 1.64 Lily Schwartz / Eloise Weiss 1.07	25%	4–14 (22%)	−0.4
9	Clemson University Tigers	10	3.15 school +0.05	Nilah Miller / Paige Berta Antonio Priskich / Jonathan Caruso Jack Houseal / Ellie Spicer	13%	3–15 (17%)	+0.6
10	The Citadel Bulldogs	9	3.77 school +0.24	Andrew Tollefson / Ella Crider Kenneth Buck / Alana Hantz 1.25 Camden Hom / William Altizer	21%	2–16 (11%)	−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Florida State University	4.72	5.81	9–9	6.9	+1.08	1.6	13%
2	University of Miami	8.79	9.19	16–2	15.5	+0.40	0.1	52%
9	Clemson University	3.15	3.49	3–15	2.4	+0.34	0.2	44%
1	College of Charleston	9.65	9.83	17–1	16.8	+0.18	0.0	67%
7	Rollins College	4.00	3.96	5–13	5.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
3	Jacksonville University	7.58	7.42	13–5	13.2	−0.16	0.0	73%
4	North Carolina State University	7.61	7.43	13–5	13.3	−0.18	0.0	74%
8	Eckerd College	3.87	3.69	4–14	4.4	−0.18	0.1	72%
6	University of South Florida	5.43	5.19	8–10	8.5	−0.24	0.1	77%
10	The Citadel	3.77	2.77	2–16	3.8	−0.99	1.2	95%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Luke Justin	University of South Florida	1.39	2.73	5–5	3.6	+1.34	1.3	17%
Brady Parks	Florida State University	1.63	2.71	9–9	6.9	+1.08	1.6	13%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.97	3.37	16–2	15.5	+0.40	0.1	52%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.27	3.68	16–2	15.5	+0.40	0.1	52%
Nilah Miller	Clemson University	1.37	1.71	3–15	2.4	+0.34	0.2	44%
Antonio Priskich	Clemson University	0.66	0.99	3–15	2.4	+0.34	0.2	44%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.91	3.10	17–1	16.8	+0.18	0.0	67%
Ka Hamner	Rollins College	1.00	1.17	5–7	4.7	+0.17	0.0	57%
Jackson Mcgeough	Rollins College	1.17	1.13	5–13	5.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
Isabella Du Plessis	North Carolina State University	2.33	2.15	13–5	13.3	−0.18	0.0	74%
Carter Morin	Eckerd College	1.64	1.46	4–14	4.4	−0.18	0.1	72%
Jordan Byrd	University of South Florida	2.01	1.77	8–10	8.5	−0.24	0.1	77%
Adam Larson	North Carolina State University	2.84	2.59	11–5	11.4	−0.25	0.1	77%
Brilan Christopher	University of South Florida	1.41	1.12	6–8	6.5	−0.29	0.1	79%
Andrew Tollefson	The Citadel	1.46	0.47	2–16	3.8	−0.99	1.2	95%
Kenneth Buck	The Citadel	1.25	0.26	2–16	3.8	−0.99	1.2	95%
Julian Drake	Rollins College	-0.05	-3.05	0–6	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Jacksonville University	Florida State University	96%
1	2	University of Miami	Eckerd College	99%
1	3	College of Charleston	North Carolina State University	88%
1	4	Rollins College	Clemson University	81%
1	5	University of South Florida	The Citadel	90%
1	6	Eckerd College	Florida State University	33%	upset
1	7	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	90%
1	8	University of Miami	Clemson University	100%
1	9	North Carolina State University	University of South Florida	88%
1	10	Rollins College	The Citadel	63%
1	11	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	100%
1	12	Florida State University	Clemson University	86%
1	13	Jacksonville University	University of South Florida	94%
1	14	University of Miami	Rollins College	100%
1	15	North Carolina State University	The Citadel	95%
1	16	College of Charleston	Clemson University	100%
1	17	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	74%
1	18	Florida State University	Rollins College	84%
1	19	Jacksonville University	North Carolina State University	49%	upset
1	20	University of Miami	The Citadel	99%
1	21	University of South Florida	Clemson University	93%
1	22	College of Charleston	Rollins College	100%
1	23	North Carolina State University	Eckerd College	98%
1	24	University of Miami	Florida State University	98%
1	25	Jacksonville University	The Citadel	98%
1	26	Rollins College	University of South Florida	21%	upset
1	27	North Carolina State University	Clemson University	99%
1	28	University of Miami	College of Charleston	30%	upset
1	29	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	98%
1	30	Florida State University	The Citadel	74%
1	31	North Carolina State University	Rollins College	99%
1	32	University of Miami	University of South Florida	98%
1	33	Jacksonville University	Clemson University	99%
1	34	College of Charleston	Florida State University	99%
1	35	The Citadel	Eckerd College	47%	upset
1	36	University of Miami	North Carolina State University	75%
1	37	Jacksonville University	Rollins College	96%
1	38	Florida State University	University of South Florida	30%	upset
1	39	Clemson University	Eckerd College	33%	upset
1	40	College of Charleston	The Citadel	100%
1	41	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	23%	upset
1	42	North Carolina State University	Florida State University	95%
1	43	Rollins College	Eckerd College	64%
1	44	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	98%
1	45	Clemson University	The Citadel	36%	upset
2	46	Florida State University	Rollins College	83%
2	47	North Carolina State University	University of South Florida	88%
2	48	Jacksonville University	The Citadel	98%
2	49	College of Charleston	Clemson University	100%
2	50	University of Miami	Eckerd College	99%
2	51	North Carolina State University	Florida State University	95%
2	52	Jacksonville University	Rollins College	96%
2	53	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	98%
2	54	Eckerd College	The Citadel	52%
2	55	University of Miami	Clemson University	100%
2	56	North Carolina State University	Jacksonville University	53%
2	57	College of Charleston	Florida State University	99%
2	58	Eckerd College	Rollins College	36%	upset
2	59	University of South Florida	Clemson University	92%
2	60	University of Miami	The Citadel	99%
2	61	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	88%
2	62	North Carolina State University	Eckerd College	98%
2	63	Florida State University	Clemson University	82%
2	64	Rollins College	The Citadel	67%
2	65	University of Miami	University of South Florida	98%
2	66	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	100%
2	67	Jacksonville University	Clemson University	99%
2	68	North Carolina State University	The Citadel	95%
2	69	Florida State University	University of South Florida	30%	upset
2	70	University of Miami	Rollins College	100%
2	71	Eckerd College	Clemson University	64%
2	72	College of Charleston	The Citadel	100%
2	73	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	7%	upset
2	74	North Carolina State University	Rollins College	99%
2	75	University of Miami	Florida State University	98%
2	76	The Citadel	Clemson University	62%
2	77	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	73%
2	78	College of Charleston	Rollins College	99%
2	79	Jacksonville University	Florida State University	96%
2	80	University of Miami	North Carolina State University	74%
2	81	University of South Florida	The Citadel	88%
2	82	Clemson University	Rollins College	23%	upset
2	83	Florida State University	Eckerd College	63%
2	84	College of Charleston	North Carolina State University	86%
2	85	University of Miami	Jacksonville University	77%
2	86	University of South Florida	Rollins College	75%
2	87	Florida State University	The Citadel	73%
2	88	North Carolina State University	Clemson University	99%
2	89	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	97%
2	90	College of Charleston	University of Miami	69%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hurricanes	Fins	Wolfpack	Seminoles	Bulls	Tars	Tritons	Tigers	Bulldogs
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	8–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	8–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	6–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Florida State University Seminoles	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Rollins College Tars	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	L
Clemson University Tigers	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
The Citadel Bulldogs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hurricanes	Fins	Wolfpack	Seminoles	Bulls	Tars	Tritons	Tigers	Bulldogs
College of Charleston Cougars	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	5–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	7–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Florida State University Seminoles	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	5–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Rollins College Tars	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Clemson University Tigers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
The Citadel Bulldogs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Seminoles	3-4-6
2	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
3	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
4	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
5	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
6	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Seminoles	2-5-6
7	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
8	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
9	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
10	Tars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
11	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
12	Seminoles	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
13	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
14	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
15	Wolfpack	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
16	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
17	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
18	Seminoles	1-2-6	def.	Tars	3-4-5
19	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Wolfpack	3-5-6
20	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
21	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
23	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
24	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Seminoles	4-5-6
25	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
26	Tars	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
27	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Tigers	3-5-6
28	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
29	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
30	Seminoles	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
31	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
32	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
33	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
34	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Seminoles	4-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
36	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
37	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
38	Seminoles	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
39	Tigers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
41	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
42	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Seminoles	3-4-6
43	Tars	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
44	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
45	Tigers	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
46	Seminoles	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
47	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
48	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
49	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
50	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
51	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Seminoles	4-5-6
52	Fins	1-3-6	def.	Tars	2-4-5
53	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
54	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
55	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
56	Wolfpack	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
57	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Seminoles	4-5-6
58	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
59	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
60	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
61	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
62	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
63	Seminoles	1-3-4	def.	Tigers	2-5-6
64	Tars	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
65	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
66	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
67	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tigers	3-4-6
68	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
69	Seminoles	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
70	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
71	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Tigers	2-4-5
72	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
73	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
74	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
75	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Seminoles	3-5-6
76	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Tigers	2-5-6
77	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
78	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
79	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Seminoles	4-5-6
80	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Wolfpack	2-4-5
81	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
82	Tigers	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
83	Seminoles	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
84	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
85	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
86	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Tars	2-4-6
87	Seminoles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
88	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
89	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
90	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Hurricanes	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Axel Stordahl '24 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Chloe Hudgins '24 Noelle Owen '24 Lucy Klempen '24
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Steven Hardee '26	Ana Stewart '27 Natalie Elder '25 Briana Hummel '27
Jacksonville University	Fins	Brent Penwarden '24 Matthew King '24 Owen Bannasch '26	Kayla Putzke '24 Madison Mihan '27 Ella Wisely '27
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	Adam Larson '24 Benjamin Usher '27 Isabella Du Plessis '25 Robert Chase '26	Sean Harris '25 Annika Milstien '25 Olivia Sowa '24 Shea Hoffacker '27
Florida State University	Seminoles	Brady Parks '25 Katie Nelson '24 Lauren Connell '26 Tia Schoening '26	Joseph Martinez '24 Niah Ford '26 Avery Harris '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	Brilan Christopher '24 Humberto Porrata '25 Jordan Byrd '24 Luke Justin '25	Emmy Digiacomo '24 Colin Molnar '25 Dana Aljasir '27
Rollins College	Tars	Hilton Kamps '25 Jackson Mcgeough '25 Julian Drake '25 Ka Hamner '26	Zi Burns '25 Sam Frushone '27 Jane Mckenzie '27 Julia Scott '27
Eckerd College	Tritons	Brooks Jordan '24 Carter Morin '25 Lily Schwartz '25	Sophie Leduc '26 Tess Levanway '26 Eloise Weiss '27
Clemson University	Tigers	Antonio Priskich '27 Jack Houseal '27 Nilah Miller '25	Jonathan Caruso '25 Ellie Spicer '27 Paige Berta '24
The Citadel	Bulldogs	Andrew Tollefson '26 Camden Hom '26 Kenneth Buck '26	Ella Crider '27 William Altizer '26 Alana Hantz '27

Conditions — 02/17/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 63°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.1 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From ENE (57°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.27 in

What this breeze does at Eckerd — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Eckerd in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Eckerd by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (55 labelled fleet-race days at Eckerd).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu