University of South Florida '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.57 (fleet 2.12) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–8 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 8–8 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 8–8 against 6.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | SAISA South Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 2.33 | 3–3 | 2.6 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 2024-02-17 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.39 | 2.73 | 5–5 | 3.6 | +1.34 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Florida | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 0.42 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.6 | -3.23 |
| Bud Morrow Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 1.14 |
| 2025 Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (PHRF A) Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| 2025 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.4 | 2.69 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Fall Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 2.54 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 2.42 |
| The Dick Allsop Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.5 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Jacksonville Trophy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 2.56 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| University of South Florida Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | 1.60 |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | -1.75 |
| SAISA South Fall Tournament | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | -1.02 |
| SAISA Fall 2v2 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Miami Trophy Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 2.19 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.1 | 2.14 |
| ERAU Greg Popp Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 2.56 |
| Eckerd Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.0 | 1.97 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| 2023 Florida Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.1 | 0.88 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South USF Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.1 | 0.40 |
| SAISA Miami Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.7 | 3.62 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 10.2 | A 1.43 · B 0.24 |
| Eckerd Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.8 | 0.78 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 0.43 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 15.9 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Crew | B | 4 | 17.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
