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SAISA South Top 6 Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 75
2 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 127
3 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 133
4 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 144
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 149
6 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 152
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 1 3 3 9 2 1 2 1 8 4 34 Owen Bannasch '26
Ella Wisely '27
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 8 7 2 2 1 5 5 5 1 5 41 Patrick Igoe '26
Madison Mihan '27
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles A 10 2 1 1 9 4 4 4 10 3 48 Brady Parks '25
Olivia Hanley '24
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 3 8 6 3 5 8 6 8 2 1 50 Jordan Byrd '24
Madisen Hamai '26
Rollins College Rollins College Tars A 12 4 5 12 3 2 1 7 3 2 51 Ka Hamner '26 [1-4]
Hilton Kamps '25 [5-10]
Jane Mckenzie '27 [1-4]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons A 4 11 12 8 10 3 7 2 5 6 68 Carter Morin '25
Tess Levanway '26
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes A 2 10 11 11 11 12 3 3 4 7 74 Josh Becher '26 [1-4, 7-10]
Brady Briggs '27 [5-6]
Olivia Campmany '25 [1-6]
Sarah Schuringa '24 [7-10]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes B 6 1 9 7 4 7 11 11 11 8 75 Brendan Jay '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Andrew Engel '26 [5-6, 9-10]
Ana Stewart '27 [1-4]
Cora Johnson '27 [5-8]
Olivia Campmany '25 [9-10]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 7 12 8 4 7 6 8 6 7 12 77 Luke Justin '25
Blake March '27
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons B 11 5 7 6 6 11 9 12 6 11 84 Lily Schwartz '25
Eloise Weiss '27
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles B 5 6 4 5 12 9 12 10 12 10 85 Niah Ford '26
Faith Hayden '26
Rollins College Rollins College Tars B 9 9 10 10 8 10 10 9 9 9 93 Jackson Mcgeough '25 [1-10]
Noel Marran '24 [1-8]
Sam Frushone '27 [9-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1122334455
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles2233445566
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins3344556677
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes556677881717
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars4455667788
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls66778817171010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons7788171710101111
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles881717101011111212
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins171710101111121211
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes11111212112233
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars1010111112121122
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls121211223344
School / Team SkipperCrew
Eckerd College Eckerd College Carter Morin '25 Tess Levanway '26
Tritons Lily Schwartz '25 Eloise Weiss '27
Florida State University Florida State University Brady Parks '25 Olivia Hanley '24
Seminoles Niah Ford '26 Faith Hayden '26
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Owen Bannasch '26 Ella Wisely '27
Fins Patrick Igoe '26 Madison Mihan '27
Rollins College Rollins College Ka Hamner '26 [1-4]
Hilton Kamps '25 [5-10]		 Jane Mckenzie '27 [1-4]
Tars Jackson Mcgeough '25 [1-10] Noel Marran '24 [1-8]
Sam Frushone '27 [9-10]
University of Miami University of Miami Josh Becher '26 [1-4, 7-10]
Brady Briggs '27 [5-6]		 Olivia Campmany '25 [1-6]
Sarah Schuringa '24 [7-10]
Hurricanes Brendan Jay '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Andrew Engel '26 [5-6, 9-10]		 Ana Stewart '27 [1-4]
Cora Johnson '27 [5-8]
Olivia Campmany '25 [9-10]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Jordan Byrd '24 Madisen Hamai '26
Bulls Luke Justin '25 Blake March '27

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 88°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 24.3 kn
From ENE (77°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1015.0 hPa Rain0.17 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Rollins: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.45 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →