Eckerd College '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 1.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–51 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 12–29 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–14 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 22–51 against 19.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | SAISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.82 | 3.01 | 6–8 | 3.8 | +1.20 | 2.0 | 9% |
| 2025-03-08 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 1.75 | 1.59 | 2–16 | 2.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.71 | 1.48 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2024-02-17 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.64 | 1.46 | 4–14 | 4.4 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | 1.25 | 1.86 | 6–8 | 4.9 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 30% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
