| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 6–6 |
| 5 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Florida State University | Seminoles | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Clemson University | Tigers | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 2–7 |
| 10 |  |
The Citadel | Bulldogs | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 51 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.341 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clemson University | 5.29 | 6.17 | 3–6 | 2.0 | +0.88 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 4 | North Carolina State University | 7.29 | 7.69 | 6–6 | 5.3 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2 | University of Miami | 9.44 | 9.77 | 10–2 | 9.6 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 7 | Florida State University | 6.03 | 6.05 | 3–6 | 3.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 8.11 | 8.05 | 7–5 | 7.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 10.36 | 10.28 | 11–1 | 11.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 6 | Eckerd College | 6.86 | 6.63 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 9 | Rollins College | 5.64 | 5.23 | 2–7 | 2.4 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 5 | University of South Florida | 7.72 | 7.28 | 5–4 | 5.6 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 10 | The Citadel | 3.96 | 0.96 | 0–9 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Hurricanes | Fins | Wolfpack | Bulls | Tritons | Seminoles | Tigers | Tars | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 8–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 8–1 | W | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 7–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 5–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 5–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 4–5 | L | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W | L | L | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Clemson University Tigers | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 2–7 | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Hurricanes | Fins | Wolfpack | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Tars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seminoles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tars | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulls | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tars | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Tritons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Seminoles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tars | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Fins | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 1-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Tars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 1-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
