Florida State University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.78 (fleet 2.47) | 237 of 328 | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–19 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 17–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 21–19 against 21.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 1.76 | 1.90 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2025-04-05 | SAISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.70 | 1.82 | 3–5 | 2.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2025-03-08 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 0.93 | 11–3 | 11.9 | −0.54 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.39 | 1.40 | 3–6 | 3.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Charleston Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.6 | 2.08 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 2.64 |
| SAISA Coed Champs: Richard Tillman Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.4 | 3.18 |
| Open Western National Semis | Skipper | B | 7 | 14.1 | 2.26 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.3 | 2.79 |
| Mendelblatt Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| FSU Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 1.09 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 2.28 |
| SAISA Top 9 Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| SAISA South Top 6 Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.3 | 0.85 |
| SAISA Fall Open Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 1.74 |
| Greg Popp Trophy @ ERAU | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 2.19 |
| The 34th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.0 | 2.60 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 1.60 |
| The Turner Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 81% | — |
| SAISA South Spring Tournament | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 0.57 |
| SAISA Open Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| The Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
