Florida State University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 (fleet 2.25) | 265 of 331 | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–21 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 4–10 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 6–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 10–21 against 11.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 2.09 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Open Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | -0.97 | 0–5 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| 2025-04-05 | SAISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.92 | 2.04 | 3–5 | 2.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 1.70 | 3–6 | 3.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
