SAISA South Top 6 Invite

HostSouth Florida
Date09/12/2026
TypeFundamental
Boat420
ScoringCombined

Analysis

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Jacksonville University	Fins	126
2	University of South Florida	Bulls	235
3	University of Miami	Hurricanes	257
4	Florida State University	Seminoles	281
5	Eckerd College	Tritons	286
6	Palm Beach Atlantic University	Sailfish	355

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Jacksonville University	Fins A	4	5	7	1	2	2	1	2	6	30	Hank Seum '27 Madison Mihan '27
Jacksonville University	Fins B	3	2	3	2	3	12	3	5	10	43	Cole Schweda '27 Taylor Collison '28
University of South Florida	Bulls A	6	1	5	9	6	1	5	6	8	47	Efe Guder '28 Laura Koszeghy '30
Florida State University	Seminoles A	1	12	8	5	1	6	13	4	2	52	Peter Foley '26 Erinne Fenton '29
Jacksonville University	Fins C	7	6	2	3	10	8	4	8	5	53	Darby Smith '28 [1-3, 8-9] Parker Thran '28 [4-7] Natalie Dunlap '28 [1-3, 8-9] Ella Wisely '27 [4-7]
University of Miami	Hurricanes A	8	3	4	6	11	3	2	7	13	57	Matthew Black '29 Arantxa Argibay '27
Eckerd College	Tritons A	9	7	1	8	5	14	15	1	4	64	Jordan Vieira '28 Avery Guck '28
Eckerd College	Tritons B	10	8	6	7	7	7	8	15	3	71	Pj Rodrigues '28 William Alvarado '29
Palm Beach Atlantic University	Sailfish A	5	10	9	12	4	10	6	9	7	72	Dawson Kohl '27 Kaylee King '28
University of South Florida	Bulls C	12	4	11	4	9	5	11	10	14	80	Kailey Warrior '27 Millicent Branflick '30
Florida State University	Seminoles B	2	9	10	13	13	16	12	11	1	87	Carter Weatherilt '28 Suzie Nguyen '29
University of Miami	Hurricanes B	13	14	12	11	8	4	14	3	12	91	Sadie Bolton '30 Cora Johnson '27
University of South Florida	Bulls B	14	11	14	10	12	13	10	13	11	108	Leland Sokolowski '30 Carlin Fretwell '30
University of Miami	Hurricanes C	11	13	15	DNF	14	9	7	12	9	109	Peter Horst '30 [1-2, 5-8] Ann Martino '30 [3-4, 9] Lanee Imperato '29 [1-3, 5-9] Mary Grace Bowlin '30 [4]
Palm Beach Atlantic University	Sailfish B	18	17	18	16	17	11	9	14	15	135	Nathan Hjort '27 Madelyn Smith '27
Florida State University	Seminoles C	15	18	13	15	15	15	18	17	16	142	Samantha Eckert '29 [1-6, 9] Lucas Beyer '29 [7-8] Zz Nichols '29 [1-6] Chloe Herd '29 [7-9]
Palm Beach Atlantic University	Sailfish C	17	16	16	14	18	18	16	16	17	148	Priscilla Foster '27 Grace Vangessel '29
Eckerd College	Tritons C	16	15	17	17	16	17	17	18	18	151	Nicholas Dowling '30 Peyton Seidle '29

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Eckerd College Tritons	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3
Florida State University Seminoles	2	2	2	1	1	1	18	18	18
Jacksonville University Fins	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5
University of Miami Hurricanes	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7
Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2
University of South Florida Bulls	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Eckerd College Tritons	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9
Florida State University Seminoles	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	6
Jacksonville University Fins	9	9	9	10	10	10	11	11	11
University of Miami Hurricanes	11	11	11	12	12	12	13	13	13
Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	10	10	10	9	9	9	8	8	8
University of South Florida Bulls	12	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C
Eckerd College Tritons	13	13	13	14	14	14	15	15	15
Florida State University Seminoles	14	14	14	13	13	13	12	12	12
Jacksonville University Fins	15	15	15	16	16	16	17	17	17
University of Miami Hurricanes	17	17	17	18	18	18	1	1	1
Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	16	16	16	15	15	15	14	14	14
University of South Florida Bulls	18	18	18	17	17	17	16	16	16

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Eckerd College	Jordan Vieira '28	Avery Guck '28
Tritons	Pj Rodrigues '28	William Alvarado '29
	Nicholas Dowling '30	Peyton Seidle '29
Florida State University	Peter Foley '26	Erinne Fenton '29
Seminoles	Carter Weatherilt '28	Suzie Nguyen '29
	Samantha Eckert '29 [1-6, 9] Lucas Beyer '29 [7-8]	Zz Nichols '29 [1-6] Chloe Herd '29 [7-9]
Jacksonville University	Hank Seum '27	Madison Mihan '27
Fins	Cole Schweda '27	Taylor Collison '28
	Darby Smith '28 [1-3, 8-9] Parker Thran '28 [4-7]	Natalie Dunlap '28 [1-3, 8-9] Ella Wisely '27 [4-7]
Palm Beach Atlantic University	Dawson Kohl '27	Kaylee King '28
Sailfish	Nathan Hjort '27	Madelyn Smith '27
	Priscilla Foster '27	Grace Vangessel '29
University of Miami	Matthew Black '29	Arantxa Argibay '27
Hurricanes	Sadie Bolton '30	Cora Johnson '27
	Peter Horst '30 [1-2, 5-8] Ann Martino '30 [3-4, 9]	Lanee Imperato '29 [1-3, 5-9] Mary Grace Bowlin '30 [4]
University of South Florida	Efe Guder '28	Laura Koszeghy '30
Bulls	Leland Sokolowski '30	Carlin Fretwell '30
	Kailey Warrior '27	Millicent Branflick '30

Conditions — 09/12/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

85°F

↑ 87°F ↓ 80°F

Feels like 96°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.6 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 14.0 kn

From ESE (102°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1016.5 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at South Florida: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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