University of Miami '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.96 (fleet 2.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–8 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 10–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 10–8 against 7.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Bud Morrow Open Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 3.25 | 8–4 | 5.4 | +1.27 | 2.4 | 7% |
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 1.90 | 2.38 | 2–4 | 1.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Top 6 Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 2.11 |
| SAISA Open Top 6 Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | -0.40 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open Top 6 Invite | Skipper | C | 9 | 11.1 | -1.20 |
| Miami Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 2.71 |
| Mendelblatt Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Bud Morrow Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 3.71 |
| SAISA Miami Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 2.50 |
| SAISA Fall Open Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.5 | 3.10 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.8 | 0.57 |
| The Dick Allsop Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
