Lake Virginia Invitational

HostRollins
Date10/18/2025
TypeRegional
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Rollins College	Tars	151
2	Jacksonville University	Fins	162
3	University of Miami	Hurricanes	173
4	University of Central Florida	Knights	216
5	Eckerd College	Tritons	224
6	University of South Florida	Bulls	245
7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	321
8	Texas A&M University	Aggies	414

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Rollins College	Tars A	2	2	1	6	9	7	6	5	3	1	10	1	8	3	64	Milo Miller '27 [1-6, 9-10] Milo Fleming '28 [7-8, 11-12] Matthew Sexton '28 [13-14] Jane Mckenzie '27 [1-6] Alexander Goldsmith '28 [7-10, 13-14] Mollie Wood '29 [11-12]
University of Central Florida	Knights A	9	5	5	1	4	2	3	3	2	9	11	3	6	5	68	Carlos Beckmann '29 Nathan Crovatto '26
University of Miami	Hurricanes B	7	3	6	2	8	10	1	11	5	8	4	5	4	4	78	Nathan Long '28 Cora Johnson '27
Jacksonville University	Fins A	5	8	3	11	1	1	8	1	1	DSQ	5	11	1	6	79	Patrick Igoe '26 Reagan Carris '26
Jacksonville University	Fins B	8	9	7	13	2	4	2	6	8	2	2	8	10	2	83	Darby Smith '28 Natalie Dunlap '28
Rollins College	Tars B	3	6	2	3	3	6	13	13	7	4	7	12	7	1	87	Caleb Kinnear '29 [1-6, 9-14] Adelaide Matzky '29 [7-8] Adelaide Matzky '29 [1-6, 11-14] Cameron Kinnear '28 [7-8] Mollie Wood '29 [9-10]
University of Miami	Hurricanes A	6	7	9	4	11	11	4	2	10	5	6	4	9	7	95	Matthew Black '29 Dan Elling '28
Eckerd College	Tritons A	11	1	4	8	7	8	10	10	9	11	8	2	3	8	100	Peter Miller '29 Peyton Seidle '29
University of South Florida	Bulls B	4	4	13	7	5	9	7	8	12	6	3	10	11	11	110	Zach O'Connor '27 [1-14] Hannes Leonard '27 [1-8] Sarah Percy '26 [9-14]
Eckerd College	Tritons B	1	10	11	12	6	12	12	4	6	3	12	7	14	14	124	Anderson Osinski '29 [1-14] Lily Tracey '29 [1-6, 13-14] William Alvarado '29 [7-12]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners B	12	11	8	10	13	3	9	9	4	13	1	16	12	12	133	Benjamin Mohrman '29 Genevieve Wagnon '28
University of South Florida	Bulls A	10	12	12	5	10	13	11	7	11	7	9	14	5	9	135	Blake March '27 [1-8] Beatriz Newland '27 [9-14] Sienna Curcio '26 [1-8]
University of Central Florida	Knights B	15	13	14	9	16	5	5	12	13	12	13	6	2	13	148	Charlie Eckert '27 [1-14] Ethan Scheller '26 [1-10] Sophia Kouchakjy '27 [11-14]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners A	14	14	15	OCS	12	14	14	14	14	10	14	13	13	10	188	Matthew Mccarvill '28 [1-2, 7-10] Kevin Ryan '29 [3-6, 11-14] Haylie Dawson '29 [1-2, 7-10] Elliott Chamberland '27 [3-6, 11-14]
Texas A&M University	Aggies A	13	15	10	14	15	15	16	15	16	15	15	9	15	16	199	Drew Gourley '27 [1-6, 11-14] Jeffrey Souto '27 [7-10] Jeffrey Souto '27 [1-6, 11-14] Maddie Gallagher '26 [7-10]
Texas A&M University	Aggies B	16	16	16	15	14	16	15	16	15	14	16	15	16	15	215	Canaan Cortes '26 [1-6, 9-14] Menya Bird '26 [7-8] Menya Bird '26 [1-6, 9-14] Canaan Cortes '26 [7-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
Eckerd College Tritons	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Jacksonville University Fins	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
University of Miami Hurricanes	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	15	15
Rollins College Tars	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
University of South Florida Bulls	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	15	15	16	16
Texas A&M University Aggies	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
University of Central Florida Knights	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
Eckerd College Tritons	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	15	15	16	16	17	17
Jacksonville University Fins	10	10	11	11	12	12	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3
University of Miami Hurricanes	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Rollins College Tars	11	11	12	12	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1
University of South Florida Bulls	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Texas A&M University Aggies	12	12	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2
University of Central Florida Knights	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Eckerd College	Peter Miller '29	Peyton Seidle '29
Tritons	Anderson Osinski '29 [1-14]	Lily Tracey '29 [1-6, 13-14] William Alvarado '29 [7-12]
Jacksonville University	Patrick Igoe '26	Reagan Carris '26
Fins	Darby Smith '28	Natalie Dunlap '28
Rollins College	Milo Miller '27 [1-6, 9-10] Milo Fleming '28 [7-8, 11-12] Matthew Sexton '28 [13-14]	Jane Mckenzie '27 [1-6] Alexander Goldsmith '28 [7-10, 13-14] Mollie Wood '29 [11-12]
Tars	Caleb Kinnear '29 [1-6, 9-14] Adelaide Matzky '29 [7-8]	Adelaide Matzky '29 [1-6, 11-14] Cameron Kinnear '28 [7-8] Mollie Wood '29 [9-10]
Texas A&M University	Drew Gourley '27 [1-6, 11-14] Jeffrey Souto '27 [7-10]	Jeffrey Souto '27 [1-6, 11-14] Maddie Gallagher '26 [7-10]
Aggies	Canaan Cortes '26 [1-6, 9-14] Menya Bird '26 [7-8]	Menya Bird '26 [1-6, 9-14] Canaan Cortes '26 [7-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Matthew Mccarvill '28 [1-2, 7-10] Kevin Ryan '29 [3-6, 11-14]	Haylie Dawson '29 [1-2, 7-10] Elliott Chamberland '27 [3-6, 11-14]
Mariners	Benjamin Mohrman '29	Genevieve Wagnon '28
University of Central Florida	Carlos Beckmann '29	Nathan Crovatto '26
Knights	Charlie Eckert '27 [1-14]	Ethan Scheller '26 [1-10] Sophia Kouchakjy '27 [11-14]
University of Miami	Matthew Black '29	Dan Elling '28
Hurricanes	Nathan Long '28	Cora Johnson '27
University of South Florida	Blake March '27 [1-8] Beatriz Newland '27 [9-14]	Sienna Curcio '26 [1-8]
Bulls	Zach O'Connor '27 [1-14]	Hannes Leonard '27 [1-8] Sarah Percy '26 [9-14]

Conditions — 10/18/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1017.6 hPa

Temperature

78°F

↑ 83°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 5.8 kn

Gusts to 14.4 kn

From E (82°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1017.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn · S 9 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Rollins: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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