Rollins College '29
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.70 | 85 of 251 | 68 | Fall 2026 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.81 (fleet 2.43) | 230 of 331 | +0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–21 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 17–21 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 17–21 against 14.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | SAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.07 | 3.21 | 8–10 | 5.0 | +1.14 | 2.5 | 5% |
| 2026-03-14 | Bud Morrow Open Team Race | skipper | 2.10 | 1.76 | 4–4 | 4.5 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2026-02-28 | Mendelblatt Open Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 1.98 | 5–7 | 5.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open Top 9 | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.1 | — |
| SAISA Open Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 2.52 |
| SAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A | 14 | 2.2 | 3.88 |
| Dick Allsop Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 1.37 |
| Charleston Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 2.48 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| SAISA Coed Champs: Richard Tillman Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 2.18 |
| Mendelblatt Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Bud Morrow Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| 2026 SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Fall Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.2 | 0.52 |
| SAISA Open Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 2.40 |
| SAISA Fall Open Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 2.70 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.1 | 1.31 |
| The Dick Allsop Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 3.06 |
| Charleston Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 0.88 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caleb Kinnear |  The Hotchkiss School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
