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SAISA Open Singlehanded Champs

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
College of Charleston College of Charleston Benjamin Dufour '26 5 1 2 1 2 5 1 1 2 2 22
College of Charleston College of Charleston Thomas Kraak '28 1 8 1 2 4 1 2 3 1 4 27
College of Charleston College of Charleston Will Rucker '28 4 6 8 4 1 3 4 2 8 1 41
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Morgan Smith '27 6 3 7 7 5 2 3 6 3 3 45
University of Miami University of Miami Jackson Bjorklund '29 3 2 3 9 3 6 8 4 9 6 53
Rollins College Rollins College Caleb Kinnear '29 2 5 4 6 9 9 5 7 4 5 56
College of Charleston College of Charleston Eliott Raison '26 7 7 5 5 6 4 6 8 7 7 62
University of Miami University of Miami Tyler Yang '29 9 9 10 8 7 8 7 5 5 9 77
Rollins College Rollins College Matthew Sexton '28 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 6 8 95
University of Miami University of Miami David Webb '28 8 4 6 3 8 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 97
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Nicolas Regnault '29 12 11 9 11 12 7 10 10 10 10 102
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Joseph Tappen '29 10 12 12 12 10 11 11 11 11 11 111
The Citadel The Citadel Damian Uzonwanne '27 13 13 13 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 136

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  13 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Benjamin Dufour '26College of Charleston Cougars 310/104.144.97+0.8396th → 99th1.69%2.2 / 3.7
2Thomas Kraak '28College of Charleston Cougars 410/103.23u4.45+1.2285th → 99th3.76%2.7 / 5.2
3Will Rucker '28College of Charleston Cougars 210/103.173.48+0.3284th → 90th0.322%4.1 / 5.3
4Morgan Smith '27Jacksonville University10/102.773.47+0.7074th → 90th1.516%4.5 / 6.0
5Jackson Bjorklund '29University of Miami Hurricanes 210/102.302.84+0.5460th → 78th0.921%5.3 / 6.9
6Caleb Kinnear '29Rollins College Tars 210/102.572.83+0.2667th → 77th0.232%5.6 / 6.4
7Eliott Raison '26College of Charleston Cougars 110/102.852.67−0.1878th → 71st0.160%6.2 / 5.9
8Tyler Yang '29University of Miami Hurricanes 310/102.23u2.03−0.2058th → 53rd0.265%7.7 / 7.0
9Matthew Sexton '28Rollins College Tars 110/101.431.27−0.1634th → 30th0.177%9.5 / 8.5
10David Webb '28University of Miami Hurricanes 110/102.192.00−0.2058th → 52nd0.193%9.7 / 7.1
11Nicolas Regnault '29Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 110/101.450.54−0.9135th → 14th2.986%10.2 / 8.4
12Joseph Tappen '29Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 210/100.85-0.28−1.1320th → 4th3.386%11.1 / 9.4
13Damian Uzonwanne '27The Citadel10/10-0.63——2nd → —3.2>99%13.6 / 11.3

Conditions — 09/13/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1016.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →