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Lake Virginia Invitational

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 31 40 71
2 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 36 51 87
3 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 69 36 105
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 64 59 123
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Lady Fins 58 68 126
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 67 85 152
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 95 63 158
8 University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 84 98 182
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 4 1 1 1 7 2 1 2 5 3 1 1 1 1 31 Caleb Kinnear '29 [1-14]
Mollie Wood '29 [1-6]
Cameron Kinnear '28 [7-14]
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 1 4 4 2 8 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 4 36 Peter Foley '26 [1-14]
Sidney Sicignano '28 [1-10]
Gavin Miller '30 [11-14]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Lady Fins 6 3 3 5 2 3 6 5 3 2 5 5 4 6 58 Fiona Froelich '28
Cheyenne Dooley '28
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 3 2 6 6 4 7 3 3 6 6 2 6 8 2 64 Elliot Hellstrom '30 [1-14]
Mason Zagol '30 [1-12]
Benjamin Nance '27 [13-14]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 5 5 5 3 1 8 5 7 4 5 7 3 6 3 67 Zach O'Connor '27
Hannes Leonard '27
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 2 6 7 7 5 5 4 6 7 4 4 4 3 5 69 Harrison Vanderground '28 [1-4, 13-14]
Alan Timms '30 [5-12]
Mary Grace Bowlin '30 [1-14]
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 8 8 2 4 6 4 8 8 2 8 6 7 5 8 84 Carlos Beckmann '29
Jhonn Rairan '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 7 7 8 8 3 6 7 4 8 7 8 8 7 7 95 Oscar Gilroy '27 [1-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Carson Totino '29 [5-8, 11-12]
Magnus Nilsson '30 [1-4, 7-14]
Gracie Robertson '30 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 3 5 1 1 BKD 1 2 3 1 3 3 2 5 3 36 Matthew Ray '30 [1-14]
Alice Pray '31 [1-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Dan Elling '28 [7-8, 11-12]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 4 1 3 4 3 2 6 6 2 1 4 1 1 2 40 Jack Adderley '28
Alexander Goldsmith '28
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 1 2 2 5 1 4 7 2 6 6 2 3 6 4 51 Carter Weatherilt '28 [1-14]
Suzie Nguyen '29 [1-10]
Sidney Sicignano '28 [11-14]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 8 8 7 2 2 6 5 1 4 2 6 4 3 1 59 Sean Ellison '29 [1-14]
Benjamin Nance '27 [1-12]
Mason Zagol '30 [13-14]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 3 4 3 7 7 1 7 5 5 1 6 4 5 63 Robert Finora '27
Stella Estipona '30
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Lady Fins 2 6 5 6 6 3 3 5 3 7 8 5 2 7 68 Lotty Hugo '30
Kaitlyn Anderson '29
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7 7 6 7 5 5 4 4 7 4 7 8 8 6 85 Ava Shakespeare '29
Esme Pray '29
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 6 4 8 8 4 8 DNF 8 8 8 5 7 7 8 98 Zane Munro '29
Jacobo Karduss Deus '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (32 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles11335577113355
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins2244661111224466
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Lady Fins33557711335577
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners55771133557711
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes77113355771133
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars446611112244661111
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls111122446611112244
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights661111224466111122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles2244661111224466
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins33557711335577
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Lady Fins446611112244661111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners661111224466111122
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes111122446611112244
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars55771133557711
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls11335577113355
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights77113355771133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Florida State University Florida State University Peter Foley '26 [1-14] Sidney Sicignano '28 [1-10]
Gavin Miller '30 [11-14]
Seminoles Carter Weatherilt '28 [1-14] Suzie Nguyen '29 [1-10]
Sidney Sicignano '28 [11-14]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Elliot Hellstrom '30 [1-14] Mason Zagol '30 [1-12]
Benjamin Nance '27 [13-14]
Fins Sean Ellison '29 [1-14] Benjamin Nance '27 [1-12]
Mason Zagol '30 [13-14]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fiona Froelich '28 Cheyenne Dooley '28
Lady Fins Lotty Hugo '30 Kaitlyn Anderson '29
Rollins College Rollins College Caleb Kinnear '29 [1-14] Mollie Wood '29 [1-6]
Cameron Kinnear '28 [7-14]
Tars Jack Adderley '28 Alexander Goldsmith '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Oscar Gilroy '27 [1-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Carson Totino '29 [5-8, 11-12]		 Magnus Nilsson '30 [1-4, 7-14]
Gracie Robertson '30 [5-6]
Mariners Robert Finora '27 Stella Estipona '30
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Carlos Beckmann '29 Jhonn Rairan '28
Knights Zane Munro '29 Jacobo Karduss Deus '28
University of Miami University of Miami Harrison Vanderground '28 [1-4, 13-14]
Alan Timms '30 [5-12]		 Mary Grace Bowlin '30 [1-14]
Hurricanes Matthew Ray '30 [1-14] Alice Pray '31 [1-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Dan Elling '28 [7-8, 11-12]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Zach O'Connor '27 Hannes Leonard '27
Bulls Ava Shakespeare '29 Esme Pray '29

Conditions — 10/24/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 14.6 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From N (360°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Rollins: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →